After confetti falls next Sunday and a Super Bowl champion is crowned, at least some of the nation’s collective sports attention will shift to men’s college basketball.
Invariably, that heightened interest is centered around the NCAA Tournament and what teams will — and won’t — make it.
Yes, the vaunted tournament bubble, that beautiful fixture of February and March, is back.
With Selection Sunday only six weeks away, chatter about Quad One wins and nonconference strength of schedule is about to pick up significantly as fans of the sport opine on which squads should earn a spot in the 68-team NCAA Tournament bracket and have a chance at a run to the Final Four.
For the purposes of USA TODAY Sports, that annual exercise begins today, with the calendar now over to February.
Here’s a look at which teams are safely in the NCAA tournament field, which ones should make it and which ones are on the dreaded bubble:
March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
These designations take into account games through Saturday, Feb. 1
NCAA Tournament locks
- ACC: Duke
- Big Ten: Purdue, Michigan State
- Big 12: Iowa State, Houston, Texas Tech
- Big East: Marquette
- SEC: Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida
- Other conferences: None
For many of these teams, the rest of the reason is simply a fight for seeding. Auburn and Duke have been the No. 1 and No. 2 team, respectively, in the country for much of the season and are best-positioned for No. 1 seeds to the tournament, though Houston, Iowa State and a trio of SEC teams — Alabama, Tennessee and Florida — are firmly in the mix, as well. Texas Tech’s gritty win at Houston moves it up to this category.
Teams that should be in NCAA Tournament
- ACC: Clemson, Louisville
- Big Ten: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, UCLA
- Big 12: Kansas, Arizona, Baylor
- Big East: St. John’s, UConn
- SEC: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
- Other conferences: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Utah State, Memphis
Kentucky would have likely been in the lock category were it not for its recent woes, with three losses in its past four games. Illinois, with four losses in its past six games, is in a similar boat. Both teams, and many others under this umbrella, have strong metrics and enough high-quality wins to make it more likely than not they’ll become locks in the next few weeks.
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
- ACC: Pitt, SMU, Wake Forest, North Carolina
- Big Ten: Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana
- Big 12: West Virginia, BYU, Cincinnati, Arizona State, UCF
- Big East: Creighton, Xavier
- SEC: Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
- Other conferences: VCU, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, UC San Diego, UC Irvine, Drake, George Mason
Admittedly, the bubble designation covers a wide swath of teams, ranging from squads that have a strong likelihood of making the tournament to those barely hanging on to their March Madness dreams. In short: if your team’s here, it’s not as daunting or dire as it may seem.
It could be tricky for the ACC teams listed here to get off the bubble. The quartet has a combined 3-24 record against Quad One opponents and given the league’s relative weakness this year, there are only so many opportunities left for marquee, resume-boosting wins (and the chances for damaging losses to lowly rated teams are plentiful).
It’s the opposite in the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. Arkansas has moved its way onto the bubble after beating Kentucky in John Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena. The Razorbacks will need to continue to play close to that level to make up for a dreadful 1-6 start in SEC play. For now, 14 of the SEC’s 16 teams still have valid tournament hopes.
Indiana, which has lost five of its past six, has little room for error, though its zero losses outside of Quad One games is helping keep it afloat for now. West Virginia’s tournament standing has gotten a little more precarious in the past few weeks, with five losses in its past seven games. On the heels of a seven-game win streak, Creighton’s very close to moving out of this category, especially with Quad One opportunities against Marquette and St. John’s awaiting.
