As the calendar inches closer to March, the NCAA tournament picture for men’s college basketball is becoming slightly clearer — with “slightly” being the key word.
Auburn has strengthened its grip on the No. 1 overall seed, though Duke and Cooper Flagg continue to pile up wins. Programs like Wisconsin and Missouri are surging at just the right time. Wins by an assortment of teams have transformed them from likely tournament inclusions to locks.
Much uncertainty remains, though.
Teams on the bubble, as they are want to do, have continued their inconsistent play and raised doubts about whether they should make the 68-team field. That group doesn’t just feature afterthoughts led by largely anonymous faces. It includes the likes of Indiana and North Carolina, as well as coaches like John Calipari in his first season at Arkansas.
Here’s a look at the latest NCAA tournament bracket projection, which takes into account games played through Friday, Feb. 21:
March Madness bracket projection
** Participating in a play-in game
Last four in
- Vanderbilt
- VCU
- Wake Forest
- Arkansas
First four out
- Oklahoma
- SMU
- Xavier
- Georgia
No. 1 seeds
- Auburn (24-2, 12-1 SEC)
- Duke (23-3, 15-1 ACC)
- Florida (23-3, 10-3 SEC)
- Alabama (21-5, 10-3 SEC)
Auburn backed up its standing as the No. 1 overall team in the tournament selection committee’s top 16 rankings with a 94-85 win at Alabama last Saturday. The rival Crimson Tide, meanwhile, has now lost two in a row after following up the Iron Bowl setback with another loss to another group of Tigers – these ones being from Missouri.
No. 2 seeds
- Tennessee (21-5, 8-5 SEC)
- Houston (22-4, 14-1 Big 12)
- Iowa State (21-5, 11-4 Big 12)
- Wisconsin (21-5, 11-4 Big Ten)
Houston doesn’t have as many Quad 1 wins as some other top teams, but the Cougars have lost just once since the start of December – and that came by one point in overtime. There are few teams in the country hotter right now than Wisconsin, which is 13-2 in its past 15 games and is coming off double-digit wins against Illinois and Purdue.
No. 3 seeds
- Texas A&M (20-6, 9-4 SEC)
- Purdue (19-8, 11-5 Big Ten)
- Texas Tech (20-6, 11-4 Big 12)
- Arizona (18-8, 12-3 Big 12)
Reigning national runner-up Purdue is suddenly reeling, with three consecutive losses (albeit against three ranked teams).
No. 4 seeds
- Michigan State (22-5, 13-3 Big Ten)
- Michigan (20-6, 12-3 Big Ten)
- Kentucky (18-8, 7-6 SEC)
- St. John’s (23-4, 14-2 Big East)
Despite injuries to standouts Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler, Mark Pope’s Kentucky team has won three of its past four. The Wildcats have a chance for a ninth Quad 1 win Saturday at Alabama.
No. 5 seeds
- Missouri (20-6, 9-4 SEC)
- Maryland (21-6, 11-5 Big Ten)
- Marquette (20-7, 11-5 Big East)
- Ole Miss (19-7, 8-5 SEC)
What a turnaround season for Missouri and coach Dennis Gates, who went winless in SEC play in the 2023-24 season, but has six Quad 1 wins this season and is tied for fourth in the unforgiving SEC.
No. 6 seeds
- Kansas (17-9, 8-7 Big 12)
- Memphis (21-5, 11-2 American)
- UCLA (19-8, 10-6 Big Ten)
- Illinois (17-10, 9-8 Big Ten)
Kansas is in freefall, with a 3-5 record in the past month. That rut most recently featured a loss to what had been a 13-11 Utah team and a 34-point beatdown at the hands of BYU.
No. 7 seeds
- Mississippi State (19-7, 7-6 SEC)
- Clemson (21-5, 13-2 ACC)
- Louisville (20-6, 13-2 ACC)
- Saint Mary’s (24-4, 14-1 West Coast Conference)
Mississippi State moves up a couple of seed lines after a stellar week in which the Bulldogs won at rival Ole Miss and against Texas A&M, both of which were decided by at least 10 points.
No. 8 seeds
- Creighton (18-8, 11-4 Big East)
- UConn (18-8, 10-5 Big East)
- Gonzaga (21-7, 12-3 West Coast Conference)
- Oregon (19-8, 8-8 Big Ten)
Oregon’s in a much more comfortable position than it was two weeks ago, with a three-game win streak that immediately followed a five-game skid.
No. 9 seeds
- New Mexico (22-5, 14-2 Mountain West)
- Utah State (23-4, 13-3 Mountain West)
- Baylor (16-10, 8-7 Big 12)
- BYU (18-8, 9-6 Big 12)
BYU is 7-2 in its past nine games, highlighted by a 34-point thumping of Kansas. New Mexico beat Utah State 82-79 last Sunday in a matchup of the Mountain West’s two best teams, but followed it with a loss at a Boise State team that’s on the bubble.
No. 10 seeds
- West Virginia (16-10, 7-8 Big 12)
- Texas (16-10, 5-8 SEC)
- San Diego State (18-6, 11-4 Mountain West)
- Nebraska (17-10, 7-9 Big Ten)
Though it nearly blew a nine-point lead in the final 10 seconds, West Virginia got past Cincinnati in a game with huge bubble implications. Nebraska had been streaking, with five wins in six games, but suffered an unsightly 17-point loss on Wednesday to a Penn State team that had lost 11 of its previous 12.
No. 11 seeds
- UC San Diego (23-4, 13-2 Big West)
- Ohio State (15-12, 7-9 Big Ten)
- Vanderbilt (17-9, 5-8 SEC)**
- Wake Forest (19-7, 11-4 ACC)**
- VCU (21-5, 11-2 Atlantic 10)**
- Arkansas (15-11, 4-9 SEC)**
UC San Diego’s among the bubble teams here as an automatic qualifier out of the Big West Conference, where it’s locked in a thrilling regular-season race against UC Irvine. Ohio State has five Quad 1 wins, but has lost four of six, capped off by a 21-point home loss to Northwestern. Vanderbilt has lost five of its past six, which included a 21-point road loss on Wednesday to a short-handed Kentucky team. Wake Forest sneaks into the play-in round after a road win against SMU in a matchup of bubble teams. VCU only has one Quad 1 win, but its overall record stands out among a weak group of bubble teams. And Arkansas stays in the field for another week after road losses to ranked Texas A&M and Auburn teams.
No. 12 seeds
- Drake (24-3, 14-3 Missouri Valley)
- George Mason (21-5, 12-1 Atlantic 10)
- McNeese (21-6, 15-1 Southland)
- Yale (17-6, 10-0 Ivy League)
No. 13 seeds
- High Point (24-5, 12-2 Big South)
- Lipscomb (20-9, 12-4 ASUN)
- Akron (21-5, 13-0 MAC)
- Chattanooga (20-8, 12-3 Southern)
No. 14 seeds
- Jacksonville State (18-9, 10-4 Conference USA)
- Utah Valley (19-7, 11-1 WAC)
- South Alabama (19-9, 11-4 Sun Belt)
- Towson (18-10, 13-2 CAA)
No. 15 seeds
- Montana (19-8, 12-2 Big Sky)
- Bryant (17-11, 11-2 America East)
- Central Connecticut State (20-6, 11-2 Northeast)
- Cleveland State (19-9, 13-4 Horizon)
No. 16 seeds
- Norfolk State (18-8, 8-1 MEAC)
- Southeast Missouri State (18-10, 13-4 Ohio Valley)
- Quinnipiac (16-10, 12-3 MAAC)**
- Omaha (17-12, 11-3 Summit)**
- Southern (17-9, 12-1 SWAC)**
- American (17-11, 11-4 Patriot)**
