With the final games of the regular season taking place this weekend, teams on the bubble of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament will soon find out how much more they need to do to ensure a spot in the bracket.
This isn’t the final chance to impress for those on the fringe of March Madness with conference tournaments next week, but how a team finishes the regular season can dictate the tone for the final days before Selection Sunday. End on a high note and not much is needed in a conference tournament, while ending in a slump could mean a deep run − or even the automatic bid − is the only way to making the field.
There are matchups between teams on the bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology where the mood will be drastically different on the winning and losing side in what are now highly-critical contests. If there are such things as must-win games in the regular season, they’ll take place this weekend. Here are the bubble games that will heavily influence the bubble heading into conference tournament week.
Ohio State at Indiana
Time/TV: Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET, CBS
A meeting between one team projected to make it − Ohio State − and one just on the outside − Indiana − will make for a thrilling environment inside Assembly Hall. The Buckeyes gutted out a double-overtime win over Nebraska on Tuesday to stay in the field, but their spot can easily be snatched by the Hoosiers. Thanks to some poor late-game decision making, Indiana lost to Oregon. Given how the Hoosiers have found momentum, beating Ohio State could give it a case to jump into the field and push Ohio State out. The last time they faced, it was a back-and-forth affair in January that required overtime with Indiana winning by one point. It could be another close one with major implications on the line.
Oklahoma at Texas
Time/TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, SEC Network
The Red River Showdown on the hardware will be a big time bubble game between the last team in − Texas − and the first team out − Oklahoma. Both sides had a great start to the week by picking up Quad 1 victories with the Longhorns surviving at Mississippi State and the Sooners getting a huge home win against Missouri. Both teams have five Quad 1 wins, but Oklahoma can jump ahead of its rival with a road victory. With the teams separated by the cut line, it’s pretty much winner is in the field and loser is kicked out. Texas led for almost the entire first matchup against Oklahoma in January. Now with this game in Austin, Oklahoma hopes it can return the favor with a much-needed win in hostile territory.
Mississippi State at Arkansas
Time/TV: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, SEC Network
What a roller coaster of week it has been for Arkansas. After suffering a consequential loss to South Carolina last weekend, the Hogs rebounded in a big way with a complete effort on the road against a surging Vanderbilt team. Now Arkansas can lock up a spot in the tournament with a victory over the Bulldogs. A win for the Razorbacks – currently 12th in the SEC – could get them the ninth seed. Mississippi State has split eight games since the start of February and would like to build some momentum entering the postseason.
Duke at North Carolina
Time/TV: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The game of North Carolina’s season will of course come against Duke, as the fate of the Tar Heels rides on the battle of Tobacco Road. North Carolina has improved its record with six consecutive wins but none its biggest concern – a lack of high-end victories. The Tar Heels are 1-10 in Quad 1 games, and that’s the reason why they still aren’t in the field. With Duke coming into town, it’s one last chance to add a marquee win, although it comes against the Blue Devils and Cooper Flagg, who would like nothing more than to damage their hopes. In the first meeting, North Carolina wasn’t close. The same can’t happen here if it wants an at-large spot.
Iowa at Nebraska
Time/TV: Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Nebraska is on its last breath to prove it should be in the tournament. The Cornhuskers have not only lost four in a row, two of those losses in Penn State and Minnesota were severely damaging to the resume. Sunday’s home contest won’t do much to shoot Nebraska up the bubble since it’s a Quad 2 game and Iowa is at risk of missing the Big Ten tournament, but it can’t overlook the Hawkeyes since it lost to them in January. There’s a lot Nebraska still has to do to make the tournament, but it will all be moot if they don’t end the regular season with a win.
