It’s officially conference tournament time in college basketball.
The conference tournaments that begin next week could be the final opportunity for some teams to jump from the bubble into the tournament. But it could also be a chance for a team that is not on the radar to surprise everyone and steal a bid.
With a 68-team field, less than half are currently a ‘lock’ in the tournament. However, many teams have done enough and should be in it. Then there are the teams firmly on the bubble that need to make a deep run, if not win their conference tournaments.
In ESPN’s Bracketology by Joe Lunardi, San Diego State, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Xavier are the last four teams in the tourney following play on Saturday. Conversely, Boise State, North Carolina, Texas and Nebraska are the first four teams out of the tournament.
Here’s an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, with which teams are locks and likely in the field as the conference tournaments begin this week:
March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
Tracker based on games through Saturday, March 8
NCAA Tournament locks
- ACC (3): Duke, Clemson, Louisville
- Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Oregon, UCLA, Illinois
- Big 12 (6): Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas, BYU
- Big East (4): St. John’s, Marquette, Creighton, UConn
- SEC (9): Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Missouri, Kentucky, Ole Miss
- Other (3): Memphis, Saint Mary’s, New Mexico
Not much has changed in terms of locks for the three big conferences. The SEC still leads the way with nine locks, while the Big Ten is up to eight now after Illinois was bumped from a ‘likely in’ to a ‘lock’ following ranked wins against Purdue and Michigan.
NCAA Tournament likely ins
- ACC: None
- Big Ten: None
- Big 12 (2): Baylor, West Virginia
- Big East: None
- SEC (3): Georgia, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
- Other (3): Gonzaga, Drake, Utah State
Georgia and Oklahoma join Vanderbilt as SEC teams that will likely make the tournament following strong recent runs. The Bulldogs had an impressive win over then-No. 3 Florida and have followed it with three more wins. A win over Missouri at least changed the narrative around the Sooners.
Drake and Utah State can lock in a spot in the tournament by winning their respective conference tournaments, rather than leaving a potential bid to be stolen by a surprising run by a school in the tournaments.
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
- ACC (3): SMU, North Carolina, Wake Forest
- Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Indiana, Nebraska
- Big 12 (1): Cincinnati
- Big East (1): Xavier
- SEC (2): Arkansas, Texas
- Other (10): VCU, Bradley, San Diego State, Liberty, Dayton, North Texas, Boise State, Colorado State, UC San Diego, UC Irvine
These teams have an outside shot of making the Big Dance but will also need help. According to ESPN RPI, these schools have a 25% to 69% chance of qualifying for the tournament.
For one, winning their conference tournaments would remove doubts about the strength of the schedule, quality of wins, etc. Schools such as Arkansas or Texas in the SEC, or Ohio State, Indiana and Nebraska in the Big Ten, could use deep runs in their respective conference tournaments to lock in a spot.
At this point, none of the schools on this list should book tickets for the NCAA Tournament, but one good week could change the discourse and make Selection Sunday less stressful.
The ACC has the most bubble teams this week, and they are hoping to join the three locks listed above. The SEC could prove very deep if Arkansas and Texas find a spark and make a deep run into the tournament to steal a spot away.
