There’s a saying by American author William Arthur Ward that says opportunities are like sunrises. If you wait too long, you miss them.
For much of the season, North Carolina has hit the snooze button when dawn arrived. Despite the several instances of oversleeping, it kept getting chances to see the next sunrise. After beating Wake Forest in the ACC tournament semifinals, the Tar Heels knew another opportunity awaited Friday, facing rival Duke for a third time this season.
Win and an NCAA Tournament bid was on the horizon. Head coach Hubert Davis said his team was excited about the opportunity to face the Blue Devils once more, feeling like they’d be ready.
Instead, it was the same old story for North Carolina. The Blue Devils woke up with a fiery energy and it was far too late by the time the Tar Heels realized they overslept. Duke won 74-71 to advance to the ACC championship game and send North Carolina back home with a grim outlook on its March Madness chances.
Everything heading into Friday indicated it would be the signature night of the season for North Carolina. Not only did it take care of business in the first two games in Charlotte against Notre Dame and Wake Forest, it was facing a Duke team without star freshman Cooper Flagg and defensive specialist Maliq Brown after both suffered injuries against Georgia Tech. A hobbled Blue Devils team couldn’t have come at a better time for North Carolina.
But out of the gate, it was almost as if the national championship-contending Blue Devils were the ones playing like their NCAA Tournament hopes were on the line. They played with a sense of urgency and intensity as if they needed the automatic bid. On the other hand, North Carolina was sleepwalking, almost as if the game didn’t have much significance.
Just look at the end of the first half. Duke was hustling for every loose ball, running down the court and playing meaningful defense. It went into halftime on a 15-0 run in the last five minutes for a 19-point lead. Sitting on the bench in workout clothes, Flagg showed more energy than anyone in Carolina blue.
To North Carolina’s credit, it finally woke up and went on a late run to make it a one-point game in the final seconds. It had a chance to tie it at the free throw line with four seconds to go, but a costly lane violation by Jae’Lyn Withers canceled the attempt and doomed the comeback. Another instance of waiting until it was too late to win.
North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament resume
Now it’s time to reexamine whether North Carolina should be in the NCAA Tournament.
In the recent USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, it was among the last four teams in the field after spending several weeks outside of the bracket. What was key to North Carolina’s rise into the First Four area was as it avoided any disastrous loss this week, other bubble teams like Indiana and Ohio State crumbled, opening the door for others to pass them up.
However, North Carolina hasn’t been able to move up any further because it hasn’t proved it could beat quality teams. It has a solid No. 35 NET ranking and a 22-13 record, but only one win was a Quad 1 victory − over UCLA in December − in the ever so important NET rankings. The Tar Heels finished with a 1-12 mark in the category, and that doesn’t even include the Quad 3 loss they suffered from Stanford in January.
The Quad 1 record has been at the center of debate of whether North Carolina should be in the NCAA Tournament, with people arguing it won 22 games with a tough non-conference schedule but only one of them was against a likely tournament team.
For the people who believe a team with only Quad 1 win shouldn’t be in the tournament, it has happened before on several occasions since the NET ranking was introduced in the 2018-19 season. Nevada in 2019, Syracuse in 2021 and North Carolina State in 2023 all got at-large bids with just one Quad 1 wins.
To aid North Carolina’s argument, both Syracuse and North Carolina State had a worse NET ranking on Selection Sunday. But what none of the aforementioned teams did have was double-digit Quad 1 losses. Syracuse had the most of the group at seven, far less ugly than North Carolina’s 12.
Had North Carolina pulled off the improbable comeback, it would have been safe to assume it would be in the field regardless what happened in the ACC title game. While two Quad 1 wins isn’t much, plenty of teams have gotten a ticket to the big dance with it.
Instead, North Carolina will leave its fate to the selection committee, which will again face the challenge of how much the name on the front of the jersey outweighs the resume. If it weren’t a blue blood, everyone would have dismissed this team. But the Tar Heels are the Tar Heels, and that alone gives them some consideration.
What the committee must remember, though, is when it comes to determining the at-large candidates, it’s supposed to put the best teams in that can have success, not maybe have it. Throughout the season, North Carolina showed it could possibly compete with the contenders. Of the 12 Quad 1 losses, six were by single-digits, and four were by three points or less. It got close, but that doesn’t mean it deserves another crack when it has consistently proved it can’t get the job done.
The Tar Heels kept missing the sunrise, and barring some more incredible luck, they will likely instead see the sun set on another disappointing season.
