It’s good to be seeded No. 1 in March Madness. Quite good.
Four conferences combined to supply every team in this men’s Sweet 16. That’s a first. One conference, the SEC, advanced seven teams into the Sweet 16. That’s also a first.
What’s not a first? Four No. 1 seeds running strong into the NCAA Tournament’s second week.
Nearly 40% of the Final Four spots have been claimed by No. 1 seeds in the past 39 tournaments, since the tournament expanded to include at least 64 teams. No. 1 seeds make the Final Four nearly twice as frequently as a No. 2 seed, and nearly four times as often as a No. 3 seed.
We’re seeing that math unfold. All four No. 1 seeds reached the Sweet 16. One No. 2 seed, St. John’s, has been eliminated, along with two No. 3 seeds: Iowa State and Wisconsin.
Only once, in 2008, did No. 1 seeds claim all four Final Four spots. Considering the overall strength of this bracket’s top seeds, it would come as no great shock if that history repeats.
Here’s my assessment of the top threats remaining to the No. 1 seeds, within each region:
Auburn’s top threat: No. 5 Michigan
Region: South
When they’ll meet: Sweet 16
Auburn beat Creighton 82-70 in the second round despite receiving just eight points from national player of the year candidate Johni Broome. Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner won the big-man battle. The Tigers prevailing is a compliment to Tahaad Pettiford scoring 23 points off the bench.
Auburn proved it’s more than Broome, but a vintage performance from the senior forward would be mighty helpful when the Tigers play Michigan on Friday. The Wolverines start two centers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, who stand at least 6-feet-10 inches tall. You might remember Goldin from Florida Atlantic’s 2023 run to the Final Four. You might remember Wolf from Yale’s upset of Auburn last season.
Auburn landed in a brutal region despite earning the No. 1 overall seed. This next matchup comes against an opponent that got hot in the Big Ten Tournament and stayed hot last week. The Wolverines will try to corral Broome with their 167 inches of starting frontcourt.
Florida’s top threat: No. 3 Texas Tech
Region: West
When they’d meet: Elite Eight
Houston lost to exactly one Big 12 team this season: Texas Tech toppled the Cougars in overtime in February. The Red Raiders pulled it off without their best player, JT Toppin, who was ejected four minutes into that win.
So it’s not hyperbole to say the Red Raiders can play with anybody. They’re elite on offense, with no shortage of players who can reach double-figures scoring. Kerwin Walton, a bench player, scored 27 points in Texas Tech’s first-round win against North Carolina-Wilmington. Two nights later, Walton didn’t score at all, and Darrion Williams, who had a quiet first round, went off for 28 points against Drake.
Toppin scored 25 points in four of his last six games. He’d be the best big man in a matchup with Florida, and the Red Raiders feature a nice collection of guards, too, who could try to keep up with Florida’s dynamite backup.
Give the Gators truth serum, and they’d probably tell you they wouldn’t mind seeing Arkansas upset Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 to set up an all-SEC Elite Eight matchup, if Florida first beats Maryland. The Gators already beat Arkansas by 12 this season, and the Razorbacks lack the scoring punch to keep up with Florida. The Red Raiders ooze scoring weapons.
Duke’s top threat: No. 2 Alabama
Region: East
When they’d meet: Elite Eight
Seventy-five points. That’s the magic number required to beat the Blue Devils. Duke allowed at least 75 points to just four opponents. Three of those four – Kentucky, Kansas and Clemson – beat Duke. Only against Auburn did Duke prevail when allowing at least 75 points.
Alabama could score 75 points against Duke, because Alabama can score 75 points against anybody. The Crimson Tide averaged 85 points in their two NCAA Tournament wins. They last failed to reach 75 in a 74-64 loss to Mississippi – on Jan. 14. That’s more than two months ago.
Alabama treats defense as an optional endeavor, and it twice lost games when eclipsing 90 points. Duke scores plenty, as well, so Alabama piling up points would not guarantee an upset, but Alabama’s scoring potential at least would give it a chance against sizzling Duke.
Duke’s next opponent, Arizona, scored just 55 points in a November loss to the Blue Devils. Alabama might have its hands full with high-scoring Brigham Young in the Sweet 16. Survive that test, and Duke-Alabama would be appropriately billed as an Elite Eight thriller.
Houston’s top threat: No. 2 Tennessee
Region: Midwest
When they’d meet: Elite Eight
Purdue’s high-scoring standout, Trey Kaufmann-Renn, gives the Boilermakers hope of upsetting Houston in the Sweet 16. Better chance, though, that the Cougars roll into the Elite Eight, where they could meet Tennessee in what would be a clash of elite defenses.
The Cougars are armed with better scorers, and they shoot well from 3-point range, but Tennessee – like a lot of Rick Barnes’ teams – is just remarkably stingy.
The Vols make scoring difficult against even elite opponents. They held Alabama to 76 points earlier this season, a paltry output by the Tide’s standards. Tennessee limited Florida to 44 points in a takedown of the Gators. Auburn beat Tennessee in an ugly game despite scoring 53 points.
Tennessee’s slick-shooting guard, Chaz Lanier, has been swishing his jumpers. Pair a dialed-in Lanier with Tennessee’s defense, and the Vols finally could have a recipe for their first Final Four in program history.
Final Four prediction
The lack of Sweet 16 Cinderellas means the No. 1 seeds won’t enjoy any gimme matchups from here forward. However, there is no weak link among the No. 1 seeds, and I favor each top seed to survive and advance to the Final Four.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
