About USA TODAY Sports’ 30 Days to the NFL draft series: Every five days, we will focus on a unique aspect of the 2025 draft, which is April 24-26.
In his two years at the University of Colorado, Shedeur Sanders became the most accurate passer in Division I college history dating back almost seven decades, according to data from Sports Reference.
Still, it’s a rare mock draft that puts Sanders ahead of former Miami (Fla.) quarterback Cam Ward, who many expect could be selected first overall by the Tennessee Titans – but will likely be picked ahead of Sanders in any case.
Certainly completion rate isn’t the only metric teams are looking for when they make their decisions at the NFL draft, which will occur from April 24-26 at the Green Bay Packers’ iconic Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. But consider just how much completion rates have jumped in recent years in college and the NFL – whether it be a higher volume of short passes or just improved accuracy.
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If there’s any question of how important the measure has become, four of the five quarterbacks selected in the first-round of the 2024 NFL draft are on Sport Reference’s list of the 250 most accurate passers. The list dates back to 1956.
J.J. McCarthy, picked 10th in 2024 with the class’s top career completion rate of 67.6%, didn’t qualify for the list because he was 162 passes short of the 875 pass-attempt minimum. Bo Nix, picked 12th in 2024, holds the single-season record for completion percentage at 77.4%.
Perhaps more importantly for NFL teams looking for quarterbacks in April, the three passers widely considered as first-round picks in most mock drafts – Ward, Sanders and Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart – are all among the top 100. Jalen Milroe, projected by some as a first-round pick, completed 64.3% of his 663 passes at Alabama. He would tie for 108th on the career list if made the minimum number of pass attempts.
Top college quarterbacks based on competition percentage
While Sanders leads the 2025 draft class in career completion percentage, Ward had the best numbers during the 2024 season for the two most important passes: touchdowns and interceptions.
Ward’s touchdown-to-interception ratio of 5.6 in 2024 – FBS-leading 39 TD passes against seven interceptions – is just a few ticks below the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 draft, Caleb Williams, who had a ratio of 6.0 in his final year at Southern California. Dart’s 4.8 touchdown-interception ratio is the second best among likely top picks.
How final college seasons compare among quarterbacks
Below, the number of touchdowns and interceptions the 2025 draft-class quarterbacks (in bold) threw last season compared to some of the NFL’s top quarterbacks in their final college seasons. Quarterbacks ranked by touchdown-interception ratios:
Of course, there’s no perfect measure to determine how a college quarterback will perform at the NFL level. One number – passer efficiency rating – tries to rank quarterbacks by completions, touchdowns, interceptions and yardage. Even that number’s predictive powers can be hit and miss.
It’s interesting to note the wide range of college passer-efficiency ratings among some of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. Although they combine the same set of statistics, the college number is computed differently than the NFL passer rating, so they’re listed in order below rather than charted.
How college and NFL passer ratings compare
Latest USA TODAY mock draft puts Cam Ward first
Unlike the 2024 draft, when Caleb Williams was almost universally projected to go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears (which ultimately happened), the vast majority of mock drafters have not settled on Ward as the top pick this year.
Ward, Sanders, his Colorado teammate Travis Hunter and Penn State’s Abdul Carter have all been suggested as potential No. 1 picks. In USA TODAY’s most recent mock draft, Ward is selected first, and Sanders is picked by the New York Giants with the third pick. Click here to learn more about the other potential first-round picks.
