The drought sits at two seasons. What a nightmare, right?
It’s been two long, long years since Georgia demolished TCU to capture the SEC’s fourth national championship in a row and fifth in six seasons. Filling that void has been the Big Ten, via Michigan and Ohio State.
The SEC is poised to reclaim its perch atop the Bowl Subdivision. That starts with the one-two punch of Texas and Georgia, which met in last year’s conference title game and are the favorites to do so again this December.
But that’s not all the SEC will bring to the College Football Playoff race. There’s also Alabama, which may be undervalued at this point as a title contender, and there’s LSU, which might end up having the league’s offense.
And don’t count out teams such as Florida, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mississippi and more. These teams may not win the SEC, but several will be in the mix for an at-large playoff berth deep into November.
With media days this week in Atlanta, here’s how USA TODAY Sports projects the SEC from top to bottom:
1. Texas
The Arch Manning era begins with the Longhorns as the favorites in the SEC and maybe the team to beat for the national title. There’s a loaded roster, a supremely talented new quarterback and the motivation to take the next step forward after coming up short against Ohio State in last season’s national semifinals.
2. Georgia
Georgia feels much closer to Texas than to Alabama, illustrating the gap between these two SEC favorites and the rest of the pack. (And the rest of the pack is pretty good.) The biggest question for the Bulldogs asks how Gunner Stockton fares as the full-time starter after he gained valuable experience over the final two games of 2024.
3. Alabama
It won’t hurt to have slightly lower expectations and a somewhat softer spotlight on Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide after winning nine games in his debut. Ty Simpson is expected to take over under center and will operate behind a very strong offensive line with plenty of weapons at his disposal. The defense is best in the front seven. Overall, this is a very talented team capable of winning the SEC and the national title.
4. LSU
The pressure is on Brian Kelly, though. The Tigers’ offense should be explosive, especially through the air, and seems capable of winning the shootouts that have become more commonplace in the SEC. The defense needs work. LSU has to do a better job buttoning things up against the run and kickstart a pass rush that disappeared down the stretch in 2024.
5. Florida
Bringing back Billy Napier may end up working out for the Gators. The decision to not make a moves after a slow start in 2024 sparked a strong finish ]and developed some significant momentum heading into a promising season. No one embodies that promise more than sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway, who will have his development lifted by an upgraded receiver room.
6. Oklahoma
Former Washington State quarterback John Mateer could end being one of the most impactful transfers of the season. Another newcomer to watch is running Jaydn Ott (California). With fewer questions on the defensive side, OU could go from six wins to the playoff should Mateer and new coordinator Ben Arbuckle change the Sooners’ fortunes on offense.
7. Tennessee
Nico Iamaleava’s departure was one of the biggest stories of the offseason. His replacement, Joey Aguilar (Appalachian State), has a track record of production but has to limit his turnovers after tossing 14 interceptions in 390 attempts in 2024. (Iamaleava had five in 334 throws.) The biggest question mark is whether the Volunteers can build a running game that can carry the load without last year’s leading rusher and with multiple new starters up front.
8. Mississippi
Team Transfer takes another stab at a playoff berth behind a rotating cast of contributors and a new starter under center in Austin Simmons. While the portal yielded more help for the Rebels, look for the defense to rely primarily on players who have at least one year in the program outside of two big adds on the edge. If the defense stays among the four in the SEC, don’t be surprised if Ole Miss exceeds national expectations.
9. Texas A&M
A veteran offensive line leads the way for a running game that may be the best in the SEC. That will help Marcel Reed continue his growth as the starter. But the Aggies won’t improve on last year’s 8-5 finish without significant improvement from a defense that gave up 5.5 yards per play in 2024, better than only four other teams in the SEC. Mike Elko’s history says the defense will be improved, but by how much?
10. Missouri
Another very friendly SEC schedule – the same opponents as last year, just flipped from home to away and vice versa – could lead Missouri to a third 10-win season in a row, which would be a program first. A transfer bonanza will help the Tigers replace several daunting losses on offense, with no addition more crucial than quarterback Beau Pribula (Penn State). And the defense could be nasty with the return of most of last year’s starters and more than a handful of Bowl Subdivision transfers with starting experience.
11. South Carolina
South Carolina’s season will be defined by a five-game stretch in October and November against LSU (road), Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss (road) and A&M (road). Given the rest of the schedule, taking three of five there would probably leave the Gamecocks in range of a playoff berth heading into the rivalry with Clemson to end November. But getting to that point is only doable if quarterback LaNorris Sellers takes a big leap in his second year and the staff can plug in as many as a dozen new starters and contributors on the defense.
12. Auburn
Auburn is going to be better, but will seven or eight wins be enough to calm a fan base stewing over Hugh Freeze’s 11-14 mark through two seasons? He’s done a nice rebooting the offense, though a lot of the Tigers’ success or failure will hinge on transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) proving he’s good enough to start in the SEC. The schedule kicks off at Baylor in what feels like a must-win game.
13. Vanderbilt
Quarterback Diego Pavia and dynamite tight end Eli Stowers will lead an offense that largely avoids self-inflicted errors and is able to take advantage of opportunities provided by good field position. The offensive line and receiver corps will be reliant on the portal, though. Look for the defense to take another step forward and help carry the Commodores back to a bowl.
14. Arkansas
The schedule is flat-out brutal. Arkansas takes on Memphis and Notre Dame in non-conference play. The SEC slate is Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU and Texas on the road, and A&M, Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri at home. The Razorbacks could recapture the magic of 2021 if things go right – really, really right. But the schedule and the new personnel nearly across the board point toward a losing finish.
15. Kentucky
The arrow is pointing down for Kentucky after longtime coach Mark Stoops orchestrated the most consistently successful stretch in modern program history. A major roster reboot via the transfer portal yielded another rental at quarterback in Zach Calzada, who has SEC starting experience. But even if the portal additions work out, the Wildcats won’t go anywhere without fixing the turnovers that defined last year’s four-win finish.
16. Mississippi State
Winless in SEC play last season, Mississippi State has barely any reason for optimism and is the unquestioned last-place team heading into the regular season. Winning two league games wouldn’t be remarkable, but it might be surprising.
