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MLS playoff scenarios: Expansion team can be first to clinch

by August 24, 2025
by August 24, 2025

  • Expansion club San Diego FC currently sits atop the Supporters’ Shield and Western Conference standings.
  • D.C. United and CF Montréal could become the first teams eliminated from MLS playoff contention.
  • The 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs begin on Oct. 22.

MLS Decision Day 2025 (on Saturday, Oct. 18) is just 56 shopping days away, and — at the moment — no team has clinched a playoff berth … yet.

That could all change this weekend, as expansion club San Diego FC could be the first team to secure a postseason spot. San Diego currently sits atop the Supporters’ Shield (tied with FC Cincinnati) and Western Conference standings. This would be a monumental accomplishment if the league’s newest team can maintain its station over the next month-and-a-half-plus.

Here are San Diego FC’s playoff clinching scenarios for this weekend:

  • Win or draw
  • FC Dallas loss or draw, and Austin FC loss or draw, and Colorado Rapids loss or draw
  • FC Dallas loss or draw, and Austin FC loss or draw, and Real Salt Lake loss or draw
  • FC Dallas loss or draw, and Colorado Rapids loss or draw, Real Salt Lake loss or draw
  • FC Dallas loss or draw, and San Jose Earthquakes loss or draw, and Colorado Rapids loss or draw
  • FC Dallas loss or draw, and San Jose Earthquakes loss or draw, and Real Salt Lake loss or draw
  • FC Dallas loss or draw, and San Jose Earthquakes draw
  • Colorado Rapids loss or draw, and San Jose Earthquakes draw
  • Real Salt Lake loss or draw, and San Jose Earthquakes draw
  • Houston Dynamo FC loss, and Austin FC loss or draw, and Colorado Rapids loss or draw
  • Houston Dynamo FC loss, and Austin FC loss or draw, and Real Salt Lake loss or draw
  • Houston Dynamo FC loss, and Colorado Rapids loss or draw, and Real Salt Lake loss or draw

Whew! Get all that?

Two teams can be eliminated from playoff contention with either a loss or draw this weekend: D.C. United and CF Montréal.

MLS Matchday 30: What are this weekend’s games?

(All games available on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.)

Saturday, Aug. 23

  • FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Columbus Crew vs. New England Revolution, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • D.C. United vs. Inter Miami CF, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • CF Montréal vs. Austin FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • FC Dallas vs. Los Angeles FC, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Houston Dynamo FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Real Salt Lake vs. Minnesota United FC, 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. St. Louis City SC, 9:30 p.m. ET
  • LA Galaxy vs. Colorado Rapids, 10:30 p.m. ET
  • San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers, 10:30 p.m. ET

Sunday, Aug. 24

  • Atlanta United vs. Toronto FC, 4 p.m. ET
  • Charlotte FC vs. New York Red Bulls, 7 p.m. ET
  • Seattle Sounders FC vs. Sporting Kansas City, 9:15 p.m. ET (FS1, FOX Deportes)

What is the format and schedule for the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs format?

A total of 18 teams qualify for the 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs — the top nine finishers from each conference.

The eighth- and ninth-place finishers in each conference will play in wild-card matches. The top seven seeds qualify for the Round 1 best-of-three series.

What is the MLS playoff schedule?

  • Oct. 22: Wild-card matches (single-elimination matches)
  • Oct. 24-Nov. 9: Round 1 (best-of-three series)
  • Nov. 22-23: Conference semifinals (single-elimination matches)
  • Nov. 29-Nov. 30: Conference finals (single-elimination matches)
  • Dec. 6: MLS Cup (single winner-take-all match)

MLS playoff picture: If the season ended today …

Heading into MLS Matchday 30, these would be the MLS playoff matchups through the first round …

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Wild-card match:

  • New York City FC (No. 8 seed) vs. Chicago Fire FC (9)

Round 1 (best-of-three series):

  • FC Cincinnati (1) vs. NYCFC-Chicago Fire winner
  • Philadelphia Union (2) vs. Charlotte FC (7)
  • Nashville SC (3) vs. Columbus Crew (6)
  • Orlando City SC (4) vs. Inter Miami CF (5)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Wild-card match:

  • Austin FC (No. 8 seed) vs. San Jose Earthquakes (9)

Round 1 (best-of-three series):

  • San Diego FC (1) vs. Austin-San Jose winner
  • Minnesota United FC (2) vs. Colorado Rapids (7)
  • Vancouver Whitecaps FC (3) vs. Portland Timbers (6)
  • Seattle Sounders FC (4) vs. Los Angeles FC (5)

MLS betting odds: Who is favorite to win championship?

According to BetMGM, Inter Miami CF (+450) is the current favorite to win the 2024 league championship, followed by San Diego FC (+600), Vancouver Whitecaps FC (+800), FC Cincinnati (+800), Los Angeles FC (+1000), Minnesota United (+1000) and Philadelphia Union (+1000).

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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