- Alabama’s season-opening loss to Florida State knocks it out of latest College Football Playoff projection.
- Tennessee among the newcomers in this latest CFP bracket prediction.
- What to do about Texas? Don’t overreact to loss to Ohio State. Arch Manning can recover.
Alabama needs a breakfast ball. Too bad there are no mulligans in college football – or in column writing.
My season-opening College Football Playoff predictions aged like egg salad in the South Florida sun, which is to say they spoiled like Boise State in the South Florida sun.
Time to scramble the lineup. (Kalen DeBoer might want to consider this, too.)
Here’s my latest projection of what I think the bracket will look like come selection Sunday on Dec. 7. Subject to change, of course.
As a reminder, teams do not need to be a conference champion to receive a first-round bye, after a change to straight seeding.
1. Ohio State
College football looks good on Matt Patricia. Formerly a failed NFL coach with the Detroit Lions, Patricia polished his reputation by outwitting Texas coach Steve Sarkisian in the season opener. Arch Manning wasn’t up to the task of facing the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s linebacker Arvell Reese caused destruction, and its secondary shrink-wrapped the Texas wide receivers. Patricia’s effective game plan helped, too. Ohio State’s ceiling will be determined by Julian Sayin’s growth, but the Buckeyes’ defense provides a high floor.
2. Texas
I’m not ready to discard Manning after he failed to solve a defense that rates among the nation’s best. In defeat, Texas showcased a commendable defense, a promising offensive line and a reliable run game buoyed by CJ Baxter’s return from injury. Sarkisian admitted his game plan failed to properly incorporate Manning’s repertoire. The Texas quarterback looked jittery playing in front of a scarlet-clad crowd of 107,524. A surname proved an insufficient security blanket for a 21-year-old’s nerves. Manning will get a chance to settle in against San Jose State, Texas-El Paso and Sam Houston State. He could steady by the time Texas travels to The Swamp in October.
3. Penn State
If Drew Allar could complete passes against Nevada’s defense every week, Penn State would be national champs. Alas, games against Oregon and Ohio State await, but not before the Nittany Lions dine on more catnip in games against Florida International and Villanova. Ohio State’s defense proved in Week 1 that it could withstand the loss of veteran talent. At Penn State, the departures of Abdul Carter and Kobe King might loom large, but we won’t really know the answer for a few weeks. Penn State treated this like a COVID-19 year and prolonged its preseason by scheduling a cupcake feast the first few weeks.
4. Georgia
The fanfare for Carson Beck – all deserved, by the way – overshadowed that Gunner Stockton snapped right into place for Georgia. Granted, Georgia played an opponent that Penn State might like to make room for on the schedule. Vulnerabilities shown by Alabama and Texas are a good sign for the Bulldogs. They’ll play each. If Stockton runs as well against SEC opponents as he did against Marshall, Georgia will enjoy a more dynamic offense. Transfer wide receiver Zachariah Branch addressed a need, too.
5. Miami
It’s good advice to not overreact to Week 1 results, but I also won’t ignore what I saw. Considering how Miami played against Notre Dame, it could have its best defense in years. Pair that with a quarterback who’s good enough to win the Heisman Trophy and a batch of wide receivers that most SEC coaches would covet, and Miami has the goods to win the ACC. The Hurricanes will play just four regular-season road games. If coach Mario Cristobal can stay out of his own way, he’s got a playoff team on his hands.
6. LSU
Brian Kelly spoke to the heart of the matter when he said LSU demonstrated “the composure and the resolve” to beat a program as well oiled as Clemson’s. It’s been a minute since LSU had the composure, the resolve or the defensive mean streak necessary to win an SEC championship. This team possesses those ingredients. You never know how a team will gel after a player-buying spree like the one LSU went on in the offseason, but the Tigers looked plenty cohesive in taking apart Clemson. They showed a spine when Clemson tested them with a late rally, and Garrett Nussmeier played like he’s the nation’s best quarterback, which he might be.
7. Oregon
After Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy remarked that Oregon “is paying a lot” of money to its roster, Ducks coach Dan Lanning weighed in: Gundy’s correct. Oregon’s roster is well-funded. That’s the way Lanning wants it. “We spend to win,” Lanning said. He’s done a consistent job of that throughout his tenure, and it must have been reassuring to see new starting quarterback Dante Moore carve up a Championship Subdivision opponent in Week 1. Oregon won’t play Ohio State amid a schedule that’s made for playoff contention.
8. Notre Dame
Keep Notre Dame in the playoff mix despite its loss to Miami. The Irish rebounded and reached the national championship game last season after losing to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame’s playoff hopes are squarely pinned to a Week 3 home game against Texas A&M. The Irish’s schedule will become accommodating after that. If they can survive the Aggies, they can overcome their loss to Miami. CJ Carr showed promise in his first career start, but Notre Dame needs to showcase tailback Jeremiyah Love more. He was underused in the opener.
9. Iowa State
In the anything-can-happen Big 12, I’m retreating toward a team that’s already 2-0 and owns a conference victory. Iowa State finished as the Big 12 runner-up last season, and veteran starting quarterback Rocco Becht is off to a fine start. The Cyclones’ schedule included just six home games, but they’ve already survived a trip to Ireland, emerging victorious against Kansas State.
10. Tennessee
I’ve entered the danger zone for a Week 1 overreaction, but the Vols and their transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar looked dynamite while blasting Syracuse. You’d be hard-pressed to find anyone in Tennessee who would welcome back Nico Iamaleava after Aguilar’s performance. The wide receivers looked dynamic, too, and the schedule is Tennessee’s friend. The Vols got served the SEC’s four weakest teams. Can Tennessee split games against Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Florida? That’s the formula for playoff entry.
11. Tulane
South Florida smashing Boise State will help position the American Conference to nab the Group of Five’s bid into the playoff. The question becomes, who will win the American? The Bulls established themselves as a front-runner, but so, too, is Tulane. The Green Wave already whipped Northwestern. They’ll also play Duke and Mississippi, but they won’t need to sweep those Power Four games to make the playoff. Winning the conference is the ticket. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff, a transfer from Brigham Young, aids that possibility.
12. Clemson
The Tigers were fortunate to lose to LSU by only seven points. Clemson got sorely outplayed. It’s also fortunate that neither this result nor its game against South Carolina will affect its opportunity to qualify for the playoff by winning the ACC. The larger issue for Clemson could be future opponent Florida State’s surge in sturdiness. But, Clemson will benefit from not facing Miami in the regular season, and Dabo Swinney remains in possession of a talented and veteran roster. It’s premature to count out Clemson.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
