After a shockingly deep run in the MLB playoffs a year ago, the Detroit Tigers proved it was no fluke, dominating the American League in 2025, to the tune of the best divisional odds in MLB.
With just 18 games left in the regular season, the Tigers have a 99.7% chance of winning their division and a 90.8% chance of earning a first-round bye, according to FanGraphs, the highest odds for any team in MLB in either category.
The team’s 82-62 record is just a half game back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the best record in the American League. However, the Tigers don’t have an easy road to the postseason. Their remaining schedule consists of 12 games against teams over .500, meaning if they are not careful, they could see that first-round bye slip from their clutches.
Here’s what the Tigers need to do to ensure the best possible outcome for the upcoming playoffs:
Tigers’ magic number to clinch playoff berth
As play begins on Monday, Sept. 8, the Tigers have an 8½-game lead on the Kansas City Royals, who are currently just outside the playoff bubble, sitting two games back of the Seattle Mariners for the final spot.
Currently, it is more likely for Detroit to reach the playoffs via clinching the division than it would be for them to reach the tournament as a wild card. For Detroit (62 losses) to clinch a playoff spot, the number of Tigers wins plus Royals’ losses (70) must be equal or greater than 11. Similarly, their magic number to clinch a playoff spot as a wild card team would also be 11.
What is a magic number?
A team’s ‘magic number’ is the combination of wins, plus losses by the team’s closest competitor to achieve a certain goal — such as clinching a playoff berth or a division title. The exact formula is: Games remaining +1 – (Losses by second place team – losses by first place team).
Every time a team wins or its closest rival loses, that team’s magic number decreases by one, meaning it can decrease by as much as two in a single day if both teams play that day.
Tigers’ remaining schedule
The Tigers have 18 games remaining in the regular season, which break down into six more series. The opponents:
- Sept. 9-11: at New York Yankees (3)
- Sept. 12-14: at Miami (3)
- Sept. 16-18: vs. Cleveland (3)
- Sept. 19-21: vs. Atlanta (3)
- Sept. 23-25: at Cleveland (3)
- Sept. 26-28: at Boston (3)
