NHL point projections: How we see 2025-26 season unfolding

The NHL standings could be a little more bunched this season.

Last year, the No. 1 overall team, the Winnipeg Jets, and the No. 32 San Jose Sharks were separated by 64 points. This year, USA TODAY predicts that the gap between first and last will be 47 points.

First, the Sharks and other bottom teams should improve. Also, the league is changing the rules on salary retention in trades. That will make it harder for top teams to load up and for bottom teams to have fire sales during the season.

Another factor is the 2026 Winter Olympics. Top teams will send more players to Italy in February for an intense tournament. Bottom teams won’t send as many players and will get some midseason rest.

USA TODAY Sports makes its annual attempt at projecting the records for all 32 NHL teams (explanations below) before the 2025-26 season starts on Tuesday, Oct. 7.

Pacific Division

• The Vegas Golden Knights will benefit from landing the best free agent (Mitch Marner) and win the Presidents’ Trophy as the top regular-season team.
• The Edmonton Oilers are a threat to get back to the Stanley Cup Final – and win it – because of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid’s team-friendly extension will make it easier to build around the two stars.
• Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar will play his final NHL season. It will include a playoff berth and another first-round meeting with the Oilers.
• The Vancouver Canucks hope to shake off a disappointing season. They will need more from Elias Pettersson and for goalie Thatcher Demko to stay healthy.
• The Calgary Flames missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. They’ll be in the race until near the end.
• The Anaheim Ducks hope to take another big step in their rebuild with the hiring of coach Joel Quenneville. They’ll continue improving but fall short of the playoffs.
• The Seattle Kraken have a new general manager and coach but will miss the playoffs for the fourth time in their five-year existence.
• The San Jose Sharks should end their two-year streak of finishing last but will be among the bottom teams again.

Central Division

• The Dallas Stars changed coaches after losing in the conference finals for three seasons in a row. New coach Glen Gulutzan will try to get the team over the top.
• Nikolaj Ehlers is gone, but the Winnipeg Jets will be a top team as long as Connor Hellebuyck is in net. He might play less in the regular season with an Olympics to win for Team USA.
• The Colorado Avalanche got captain Gabriel Landeskog back during the playoffs and moved out Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood in the offseason.
• The Minnesota Wild took care of two priorities by getting forward Kirill Kaprizov and goalie Filip Gustavsson signed long-term. Kaprizov got a record deal.
• The Utah Mammoth have a new practice facility, a new name and logo and newcomers J.J. Peterka and Nate Schmidt. Things are looking up in their second season in Utah.
• The St. Louis Blues clinched the final Western Conference berth last season. They’ll be in the mix again this season.
• Nashville Predators coach Andrew Brunette is on the hot seat after last season’s free agent spree fizzled.
• The Chicago Blackhawks‘ rebuild around Connor Bedard will take time. Good thing Gavin McKenna is available to whoever wins the draft lottery.

Atlantic Division

• With the Toronto Maple Leafs missing Marner and the Florida Panthers missing Aleksander Barkov, the Atlantic Division title is there to grab for the ultra-talented Tampa Bay Lightning.
• It will be hard to replace Marner and his 102 points, but Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews is healthy.
• No Barkov for seven to nine months. No Matthew Tkachuk early. But the Panthers are deep and coach Paul Maurice always makes the right moves.
• The Ottawa Senators have a good mix and should be able to extend their playoff streak to two seasons.
• The Montreal Canadiens added Noah Dobson, and Ivan Demidov is a rookie of the year favorite. They will be in the hunt for a playoff spot.
• Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams is under pressure to end the team’s 14-year playoff drought. He added depth to the defense and in net but traded No. 2 scorer J.J. Peterka.
• The Detroit Red Wings hoped they addressed their goaltending concerns by adding John Gibson.
• Was the Boston Bruins‘ missed playoff berth a one-off or a trend? Last season’s sell-off makes it more difficult to turn things around.

Metropolitan Division

• The Carolina Hurricanes signed free agent Nikolaj Ehlers and re-signed Logan Stankoven long-term. Could this be the year this group gets to the Stanley Cup Final?
• A lot of players had career years in 2024-25. That will be hard to duplicate but the Washington Capitals remain dangerous.
• The New Jersey Devils‘ key will be Jack Hughes staying healthy. They made the playoffs by only two points after he had season-ending surgery in March.
• The Columbus Blue Jackets jumped from eighth in the division in 2023-24 to fourth last season while honoring the memory of Johnny Gaudreau. They just missed the playoffs but should make it this time.
• A lot of New York Rangers players took a step back as they went from a Presidents’ Trophy to a missed playoff berth. Some veterans were moved as a result. New coach Mike Sullivan will need to get the rest back on track.
• New GM Mathieu Darche is putting his imprint on the New York Islanders. It helps that the team won the draft lottery and took defenseman Matthew Schaefer.
• The Philadelphia Flyers brought in franchise legend Rick Tocchet behind the bench. He won coach of the year in his first full season in Vancouver, but this team isn’t as talented.
• The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a quandary. They could use a rebuild, but that’s not fair to Sidney Crosby and the older core. But if they start slowly, some secondary veterans could end up moving.

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