- The Big Ten has the two most complete teams, though the SEC has more depth.
- Indiana, Ohio State, Alabama, and Texas A&M are projected to receive first-round byes.
I don’t want to ruin the suspense for the good people on the College Football Playoff selection committee, but here we are staring at the inevitable.
I ask you, who is beating Ohio State or Indiana?
More to the point, what team is beating Ohio State or Indiana — other than, you know, Ohio State and Indiana?
In fact, the Buckeyes and Hoosiers could both be unbeaten in the Big Ten championship game and ranked No .1 and No. 2, and the only change in the final College Football Playoff poll will be – no matter the outcome – who’s No. 1 and who’s No. 2?
Because but for the new CFP seeding rules, the loser of the Big Ten championship game (under that specific scenario), would’ve been moved to the No. 5 seed and forced to play a first-round game.
Which, of course, is utterly ridiculous.
While the Big Ten certainly isn’t as deep as the SEC – in fact, not close – it has, far and away, the two most complete teams in college football. That’s where we are heading into the last week of October, where the CFP elimination games begin.
From here until the first week of December, playoff hopes will be crushed. Others will breathe another week longer.
A look at this week’s College Football Playoff projection:
1. Indiana: It sounds crazy, but have we already seen the best of the Hoosiers? It can’t get much better than punishing top-10 wins against Illinois and Oregon. Or maybe that’s the appetizer. Next: UCLA.
2. Ohio State: The elite defense has played the No. 80 (Texas), No. 62 (Ohio), No. 34 (Washington), No. 37 (Illinois), No. 79 (Minnesota) and No. 134 (Wisconsin) scoring offenses in college football. I’m just sayin. Next: Idle.
3. Alabama: The beautiful underlying theme: Alabama fans are enjoying this unknown drama much more than a rout-filled Nick Saban season. Next: at South Carolina.
4. Texas A&M: I don’t want to be the wet blanket for the Texas 8&5 crew (of which I was once a charter member), but this schedule (and the Aggies) looks a whole lot like Texas 11&1. Next: at LSU.
5. Georgia: It’s a different team every week, and it’s time to admit they’re just not what they once were. That doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the gutty, gritty play of QB Gunner Stockton. Next: Idle.
6. Mississippi: This Rebels offense with last year’s Ole Miss defense wins this year’s national title. There, does that make everyone in Oxford feel better after blowing the Georgia game? Next: at Oklahoma.
7. Oregon: A talented team whose best players are young and learning. Ducks are a year away from a deep CFP run. Next: Wisconsin.
8. Oklahoma: The offense looks like it’s slowing down because now there’s tape on QB John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, and because SEC defenses are, you know, really fast and talented. And adjust. Next: Mississippi.
9. Miami: Every year. Every single year we get sucked in. Now we’re looking for the other loss(es) to drop. Next: Stanford.
10. Texas Tech: At the end of the season when Tech is 11-1, you’ll look at the schedule and remember, right, that loss at desperate Arizona State was without starting QB Behren Morton. Next: Oklahoma State.
11. Vanderbilt: This may be difficult to hear, but the Commodores may not lose again. And they’ll be Indiana, circa 2024 — except for wins against ranked teams. Next: Missouri.
12. South Florida: Bulls could lose again, win the AAC and still be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. Next: at Memphis.
The field
First-round byes: Indiana, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas A&M.
First-round games
South Florida (12) at Georgia (5)
Vanderbilt (11) at Mississippi (6)
Texas Tech (10) at Oregon (7)
Miami (9) at Oklahoma (8)
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
