SEC will dominate CFP, but can it prevent Big Ten from winning it all?

All College Football Playoff paths are quickly and undeniably leading directly to the SEC, where the exiled king is primed for a roaring comeback. 

Which, of course, makes everyone outside the league want to puke.

But it’s time to accept a world where six SEC teams are selected to the CFP, a move that would not only spread controversy and panic, it could set the tone for the future of the college football postseason. 

First, the six teams currently headed toward the CFP, desperately trying to break the Big Ten’s two-year hold on the national title: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas and Oklahoma. All it’s going to take is another Notre Dame loss (see: at Pittsburgh).

Now, the future: Mississippi State president Mark Keenum, the chair of the CFP board of managers and arguably the strongest president in all of college sports, said last week on the ‘Paul Finebaum Show’ the SEC prefers no automatic qualifiers for future playoffs. 

Remember, the deadline to change the CFP for the 2026 season (and expand the field) is Dec. 1, and the SEC and Big Ten have been bickering for months about format (16 or 20 teams, automatic qualifiers, selection committee, etc.). No automatic qualifiers sets up the possibility of the SEC (and/or Big Ten) dominating the playoff for years to come. 

Look at this year’s 12-team format: there isn’t an ACC team worthy of a Top 12 ranking, but the conference champion will get an automatic bid. Texas Tech is the only Big 12 team that appears to be a lock for a spot.  

The highest-ranked Group of Five champion receives a spot, and that scenario would leave nine CFP spots for a deep SEC, a top heavy Big Ten and potentially Notre Dame. It’s not as crazy as you think. 

Meanwhile, back in the best conference in the game, two more heavyweight matchups this week (Texas-Georgia, Oklahoma-Alabama) won’t eliminate teams, but will more than likely shuffle the order of how the teams are ranked by the selection committee.  

A look at this week’s projected CFP field, and a prediction on how the CFP selection committee will vote:

The 12-team CFP bracket field

1. Indiana: Every championship team runs into a rough spot against a team it should beat. That Indiana found a way to win a game it shouldn’t is what elite teams do. Next: Wisconsin.

2. Ohio State: I get it, the schedule is putrid. But this team looks a lot like the 2022 team that could’ve won it all, and didn’t because of a missed field goal in the CFP semifinal against Georgia. Next: UCLA.

3. Texas A&M: The path (not necessarily the players) looks a lot like LSU 2019. Overwhelming offense, and a defense that’s figuring it out in the back half of the season. Next: South Carolina.

4. Alabama: The run game has been a problem all season. If Oklahoma can make the Tide one dimensional and affect the quarterback, it will get interesting in Tuscaloosa. Next: Oklahoma. 

5. Georgia: The pass rush is beginning to affect the quarterback, which leads to better coverage in the secondary. Now here comes suddenly hot Arch Manning. Next: Texas.   

6. Ole Miss: It’s all about positioning and favorable schedule. As long as Rebels keep winning, there’s a possibility to reach the top four and earn a first round bye. Next: Florida.

7. Texas Tech: The only question: Can injured QB Behren Morton continue to gut it out, week after week? If he can, this team is dangerous — especially in a first round home game. Next: UCF. 

8. Oregon: Don’t underestimate the win at Iowa, and more important, the play of QB Dante Moore when the Ducks needed him. There’s still heavy lifting ahead. Next: Minnesota. 

9. Texas: Obsessing on all things Manning has overshadowed Texas finding a way back to the CFP with a few gut-check wins. Now it looks like the pass game is beginning find its stride. Next: at Georgia. 

10. Oklahoma: A close loss to Alabama won’t be a critical blow, an ugly loss opens the door for two-loss Vanderbilt. OU needs John Mateer of September to emerge. Next: at Alabama. 

11. Notre Dame: You can’t have one thing without the other. If the committee is praising an Irish resume that essentially consists of a good loss to Texas A&M, that must mean the SEC holds more weight — and therefore, earns more deference. Next: at Pitt.

12. Vanderbilt: The committee is already talking eye test, which is typically saved for the last week of the season. OK, I’ll bite. Eye test: Vanderbilt or BYU or any ACC team? Next: Kentucky.

Five automatic qualifiers: Indiana (Big Ten), Texas A&M (SEC), Texas Tech (Big 12), Georgia Tech (ACC).

First round byes: Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama.

College Football Playoff first round

• (12) South Florida at (5) Georgia
• (11) Georgia Tech at (6) Ole Miss
• (10) Oklahoma at (7) Texas Tech
• (9) Texas at (8) Oregon

College Football Playoff quarterfinals

• Texas-Oregon winner vs. Indiana (1), Rose Bowl
• Oklahoma-Texas Tech winner vs. Ohio State, Cotton Bowl
• Georgia Tech-Ole Miss winner vs. Texas A&M, Sugar Bowl
• South Florida-Georgia winner vs. Alabama, Orange Bowl

How the CFP committee will vote

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Ole Miss
8. Texas Tech
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. BYU

When do the next College Football Playoff rankings come out?

Tuesday, Nov. 11: 7 p.m

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.