- Ohio State’s nightmare scenario is a fifth consecutive loss to Michigan, potentially knocking them from the top four.
- Several SEC teams, including Texas A&M, Georgia, and Mississippi, face scenarios that could either secure a bye or eliminate them from contention.
- Teams like Texas Tech, Oregon, and Oklahoma must avoid losses in their remaining games to keep their at-large playoff hopes alive.
Miami, Alabama and Mississippi were inside the top nine of the College Football Playoff rankings at this point a year ago with each seemingly locked into the tournament after a clean finish to the regular season.
You remember what happened next. The Hurricanes coughed up a 21-point lead and lost to Syracuse. The Crimson Tide were walloped by Oklahoma. The Rebels lost by a touchdown at Florida.
While this year’s bracket is set should favorites take care of business these next two weeks — resulting in a field of five SEC teams, three Big Ten teams, two teams from one of the ACC or Big 12 and one representative from the Group of Five — there are doomsday situations for each major contender that would shake up the final seedings or eject teams from the tournament entirely.
Let’s take a look at the realistic nightmare finish for the top 12 of this week’s playoff rankings in addition to each team’s best-case scenario:
No. 1 Ohio State
Ohio State’s nightmare scenario is simple: Lose to Michigan for the fifth time in a row. That would knock the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship game and could knock them out of the top four, though there would be soft landing somewhere around No. 5 or No. 6 in the final rankings.
Best case: Beat Michigan and then win a Big Ten championship for the first time since 2020 to secure the top seed in the playoff.
No. 2 Indiana
Indiana could lose to Purdue, technically, though that would rank among the biggest upsets in modern college football history. But that’s the doomsday scenario for the Hoosiers, even if they could still backdoor into the Big Ten championship game under certain circumstances. Losing to the Boilermakers and again at Lucas Oil Stadium could cost Indiana a home game in the opening round.
Best case: Win out and finish as the top seed.
3. Texas A&M
Missing the SEC championship game entirely. That would entail a painful stumble to a three-loss Texas team with really nothing to play for other than non-playoff bowl positioning. A&M has never lost to an opponent from the Championship Subdivision, so don’t look for any issues this weekend against Samford.
Best case: Embarrass the Longhorns, win the SEC and earn an opening-round bye, though earning the top seed would require some help in the Big Ten.
4. Georgia
Drop the rivalry to Georgia Tech but make the SEC championship game by virtue of an Alabama loss in the Iron Bowl, and then lose by a couple touchdowns to Texas A&M. While this wouldn’t knock them out of the playoff entirely – these would be two defeats to teams with a combined 19-1 record at this point – three losses might make the Bulldogs the last SEC team in the tournament.
Best case: Beat Georgia Tech to knock the Yellow Jackets out of at-large contention and then beat unbeaten Texas A&M to take the SEC and become probable No. 2 seed.
5. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have enough credibility with the committee to drop a competitive matchup in the conference championship game and still earn an at-large bid, especially if the loss comes to Brigham Young. What Tech can’t do is lose twice, starting with West Virginia to end November.
Best case: Rout BYU for the second time and then replace one of the losers from the Big Ten or SEC title game as one of the top four seeds.
6. Mississippi
On the field, the doomsday scenario features an Egg Bowl loss and a specific series of wins and losses across the Power Four – starting with both Texas Tech and BYU making the tournament – that leave the Rebels as the last at-large team out of the field. Maybe a more realistic nightmare: Lane Kiffin departs for an SEC rival in the days following the release of the final rankings.
Best case: Sneak into the SEC championship game and then beat Georgia to earn an opening-round bye. Should that not happen, beating Mississippi State puts the Rebels in coveted position to land one of the top six spots.
7. Oregon
Lose on Saturday to Southern California to be eliminated from Big Ten contention and then drop the rivalry to Washington to be removed from playoff consideration. The Ducks would be in the mix for an at-large spot with one loss but it could get dicey depending on other circumstances.
Best case: Beat USC and Washington while Michigan beats Ohio State and then play for and win the Big Ten championship for the second year in a row, very likely earning a bye in the process.
8. Oklahoma
Losing just one of two to Missouri and LSU would drop Oklahoma from the playoff mix. A more nightmarish scenario has the Sooners dropping both games, which would erase the goodwill from last weekend’s upset of Alabama and raise the pressure around Brent Venables heading into what could be a make-or-break 2026 season.
Best case: Beat Missouri and LSU to finish the regular season at 10-2 and draw a matchup at home in the opening round. The Sooners could push into the No. 6 seed with some combination of losses by Texas Tech, Mississippi and Oregon.
9. Notre Dame
Notre Dame could lose to Syracuse or Stanford, though that seems highly unlikely. In a more reasonable doomsday scenario, the Irish beat both teams unconvincingly and the committee taps into the loss to Miami to justify bumping the at-large Hurricanes into the tournament in their place.
Best case: Beat Syracuse and Stanford, have Texas Tech beat BYU and hold onto one of the last at-large spots in the tournament.
10. Alabama
Dropping the Iron Bowl to Auburn and losing three games in the regular season for the second year in a row under Kalen DeBoer. That trumps a loss to Texas A&M or Georgia in the SEC championship game, since a narrow defeat might give Alabama enough credibility to hang around the fringes of the at-large debate.
Best case: Win the Iron Bowl to reach the SEC championship and then hand the Aggies their first loss to inch into the top five or six seeds, though cracking the top four seems unlikely.
11. Brigham Young
Lose to Cincinnati and Central Florida to miss out on another shot against Texas Tech. Worse yet, Utah wins out while Arizona State loses once; that would send the Utes to the championship game, where they upset the Red Raiders to make the Cougars’ nightmare complete.
Best case: Beat Cincinnati and UCF, win the rematch with the Red Raiders and get a home game in the opening round.
12. Utah
While one loss would be enough to ruin Utah, that would be less painful than beating Kansas State and Kansas but still watching BYU take care of business down the stretch and then knock off Texas Tech to win the conference.
Best case: Win out, reach the conference championship game and then beat Texas Tech to earn an automatic berth.
