MLB free agent predictions: Will ace closer leave Mets?

by November 23, 2025

Heading into Thanksgiving, Major League Baseball’s free agent market is still taking shape ahead of the annual winter meetings.

Outfielder Kyle Tucker is widely considered the best player available and could end up signing a deal north of $400 million. Other impact bats include Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette and Pete Alonso, while Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen and Ranger Suarez are among the top pitchers in the class.

USA TODAY Sports’ MLB team made our official winter predictions earlier in November and will stand by those picks, but here’s why one of us thought – and still thinks – the way we did about a couple of those things:

Orioles will sign a higher-end starter

Coming off back-to-back postseason trips a year ago, the Orioles drew widespread condemnation in the Old Line State for their winter inactivity. They proceeded to finish in last place, firing manager Brandon Hyde along the way and the Orioles Project now comes to a crossroads in 2026.

It was admittedly David Rubenstein’s first offseason as an owner so perhaps the boss could be forgiven if he splashes some cash to make an impact signing this winter.

The Orioles are expected to pursue some of the top starting pitchers on the market, namely lefty Framber Valdez and right-hander Dylan Cease, and a signing or two may signal that Baltimore is now open for business.

Edwin Diaz will leave the Mets

Six years after joining the team in a trade that this columnist foolishly said would go down as one of the worst in franchise history, Diaz is fourth on the Mets’ all-time saves list and has become something of a cultural icon across sports for his bullpen entry.

A free agent for the second time in four winters, Diaz opted out of the final two years of the record-breaking deal he signed to stay in Flushing late in 2022. He missed the entire 2023 season after a fluke injury in the World Baseball Classic, overcame rust in his 2024 return to get the Mets to the NLCS and then won his second NL Reliever of the Year award for the Mets in 2025.

But maybe it’s best for everybody to say goodbye?

There was consensus on Diaz’s last nine-figure contract but he’s three years older now and chasing another deal in the $85-105 million range. David Stearns would surely love to reinvest in multiple relievers as the Mets pick up the pieces following a disaster finish.

Diaz won’t be without high-level suitors as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays should both be in the market for a top reliever. Would the 31-year-old sign on if he wasn’t guaranteed the ninth inning?