- The Madden NFL video game simulation has correctly predicted 13 of the last 22 Super Bowls.
- This year’s simulation picked the Seattle Seahawks to defeat the New England Patriots 23-20.
- Madden’s prediction accuracy has varied by console generation, with a recent return to form after a rough patch.
As part of the run up to the Super Bowl, Electronic Arts generates a simulation of the big game using its latest Madden NFL video game. This year, the pixels that be picked the Seattle Seahawks to defeat the New England Patriots 23-20, with quarterback Sam Darnold earning the MVP honors.
But can you trust a video game’s prediction?
Per a USA TODAY analysis of Madden picks dating back to 2004 — the first year EA ran predictions — the simulation generally beats the odds. Madden has correctly predicted 13 of 22 Super Bowls for a 59% success rate, far eclipsing the 48% pick rate of the Vegas line during the same span, per Pro Football Reference. However, that success hasn’t come without its share of rough patches.
A rocky start to the current generation
When USA TODAY analyzed Madden’s predictions by console generation, it found evidence that recent picks have been shaky — although the last couple of years might be bucking that trend.
During the PlayStation 2 and original Xbox era, Madden went 3-for-3, correctly picking the Patriots twice and the Pittsburgh Steelers once. In the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 era, it maintained the strong performance and went 4-for-6 (67%).
The PlayStation 4 and Xbox One generation dipped by seeing a 4-for-8 clip (50%), although it was highlighted by a perfect prediction in Super Bowl 49 when the simulation nailed the precise final score: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24.
However, things got bumpy at the start of the current generation. Madden whiffed on the first three predictions of the PlayStation 5/Xbox Series X|S era, leading to a run of one correct pick out of six when combined with last three games of PS4/XBO generation.
In the face of that rough run, the latest picks may have righted the ship. Madden has the correctly picked two straight, and if the Seahawks beat the Patriots this year, it will be the game’s first prediction three-peat since the very first run of simulations in the mid-2000s.
Madden’s favorite Super Bowl teams
The data also reveals which franchises Madden’s simulation favors — and which it doesn’t believe in.
No team has appeared in more Super Bowls during Madden’s prediction run than the New England Patriots. The video game has picked them to win the title six times and lose three times, including this year’s matchup against Seattle.
The Kansas City Chiefs hold a similar favorite rate in their five appearances, with three picks to win and two to lose. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the lone franchise with multiple appearances that Madden has never picked to lose — the western Pennsylvania franchise is a perfect 3-for-3 in Madden Super Bowl predictions (although 2-1 in the actual Super Bowl games).
On the flip side, the San Francisco 49ers have also made three appearances in Madden predictions, but have been tabbed as the loser in all three. It was a similar story for the Seattle Seahawks until this year, when Madden picked them to win for the first time ever. Previously, the club was 0-for-3 in Madden Super Bowl predictions, including when the team lifted the Lombardi Trophy in 2014.
What it means for Super Bowl 60
This year’s prediction carries with it some historical baggage. As mentioned, the Seahawks have never been Madden’s pick to win a Super Bowl until now. And it’s worth keeping in mind that in the previous Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, Madden got the score exactly right.
With back-to-back correct picks, the Oracle of Madden appears to have found its footing after a rough start to the latest console generation. A Seahawks win on Sunday would extend that streak to three — and give Seattle its first-ever Madden-blessed championship.
Of course, it’s just a single simulation, and Madden’s year-to-year accuracy has always been streaky. But with a 59% historical success rate, the simulation still beats the Vegas line. Just maybe don’t bet the house on it.
