MESA, AZ — It has been nearly a decade since the Chicago Cubs won the NL Central in a full season.
They have reached the postseason just three times since 2017.
And they reside in the same division as their annoying neighbors, the Milwaukee Brewers, who won the most games in baseball last season while capturing their third consecutive division title.
The Cubs know all this, but on their first day of spring training, they boldly believe they are now the team to beat in the NL Central, and perhaps become the team that can finally derail the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers.
In the words of Cubs manager Craig Counsell, they have expectations, big expectations, and they worked awfully hard to have them.
They spent $228 million this winter, the second-most money in baseball, signing free agent third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract, trading for starter Edward Cabrera, and bolstering a team that earned a wild-card berth a year ago.
“Everybody’s optimistic right now, we all should be,’’ Counsell said. “I was optimistic last year at this time, absolutely, very optimistic. And we won 92 games. That’s good. You win 92 games, you take it. That’s a playoff team.’’
It just wasn’t good enough to knock off the Brewers, the Cubs finishing five games back in the NL Central.
Yet, with the Cubs spending their most money in an offseason since 2015 − the year before they won their first World Series since 1908 − and the Brewers spending only $3 million, it’s easy to see why expectations are soaring in Chicago.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects the Cubs to win the division by 10 games over the Brewers, while FanGraphs predicts the Cubs to win the division by four games over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
“I know the expectations are high,’’ said Jed Hoyer, Cubs president of baseball operations, “which I think is great. That’s what you want. I think the excitement in camp is palpable. I think the players are talking about it and the coaches are talking about it. I think that they’re excited about our team. They’re excited about our group, both from a talent standpoint and a camaraderie standpoint.
“So many of the guys were here last year. I think they feel like we had a really good season, but there’s unfinished business. And I think in a lot of ways that’s the best kind of spring training, when there’s a hunger. I think that the expectations don’t create anxiety, they create hunger with this group, and I think this group is excited to get started.’’
The Cubs certainly created plenty of versatility and depth when they signed Bregman to play third base, moving Matt Shaw to a super-utility role where he’ll play third base, second base and the outfield, while keeping Nico Hoerner at second base. They have a solid starting rotation led by Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton (who finished second in the rookie-of-the-year balloting), Cabrera, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon, with ace Justin Steele possibly returning to the rotation as early as May. They also remain in talks with free-agent starter Zac Gallen. Gallen would not only give them a powerful top of the rotation, but provide insurance for the future with Taillon, Boyd and Imanaga eligible for free agency after the season.
“We have a lot of free agents,’’ Hoyer said, “that’s going to be a topic of conversation.’’
The Cubs also overhauled their bullpen with four new relievers − Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb and Hunter Harvey − while retaining Caleb Thielbar and anointing Danny Palencia to be their official closer.
“I know I’m ready,’’ said Palencia, who saved 22 games and struck out 61 in 52.2 innings in his first season as a closer.
Really, the Cubs will tell you, they see no reason why they shouldn’t be playing at Wrigley Field until the leaves turn brown.
“Look at the rotation, the arms we have, the depth we have,’’ Boyd said, “it’s impressive. You think about what Cade (Horton) is going to do after his year of experience. You think about what the rest of us are going to do, the adjustments that we’ve made, and the experience that we’ve gained from last season pitching into the postseason. It’s all things that will make us better, collectively.’’
It has the Cubs with World Series dreams dancing in their heads, believing that even with the loss of All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker, this team is built for a deep October run, resurrecting memories of 2016.
“That’s the expectation we hold ourselves to,’’ Boyd said. “It makes it more exciting when you know No. 3 (Bregman) is here, what he’s got to offer, Cabrera, and you go, ‘Ok, here we go.’ We know your mission. It’s the same as last year. We came up short. It was a lot of fun. It was awesome. Very grateful for it.
“But ultimately, we didn’t go where we wanted to. Doesn’t mean it was a failure. Just means we didn’t get there yet.’’
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