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Bracketology: A new No. 1 seed emerges in NCAA men’s tournament projection

by February 17, 2026
by February 17, 2026

  • Connecticut has replaced Houston as a No. 1 seed in the latest bracketology update.
  • Michigan, Arizona, and Duke join UConn on the top line with a combined 35-6 record in Quad 1 games.
  • Iowa State moved up to a top-rated No. 2 seed after key wins against Houston and Kansas.

Connecticut is in and Houston is out on the No. 1 line of the USA TODAY Sports latest bracketology after the Cougars fell 70-67 at Iowa State on Monday night.

The Huskies regained their grip on a No. 1 seed after rebounding from a road loss to St. John’s with Big East wins against Butler and Georgetown. UConn joins Michigan, Arizona and Duke. This foursome has separated itself from the pack thanks to a combined 35-6 record in Quad 1 games.

It’s a big week coming up for Michigan, which travels to Purdue on Tuesday night and then plays Duke in Washington, D.C., this weekend.

Iowa State takes over as the top-rated No. 2 seed after notching a second high-profile Big 12 win in a row, following this past Saturday’s 74-56 victory against Kansas.

Houston’s drop is one of several in the updated bracket involving some of the biggest names in the Power Five.

The Jayhawks slip to a No. 3 seed after the Iowa State loss erases some of the good vibes stemming from a torrid eight-game run that included wins against the Cyclones, Brigham Young, Texas Tech and Arizona.

Three losses in four games sent Michigan State to the No. 4 line. While two of those setbacks came against the Wolverines and Wisconsin, the Spartans’ résumé is dinged by an ugly road loss to Minnesota. The Gophers are 4-10 in Big Ten play and are 86th in the NET rankings.

March Madness last four in

Georgia, UCLA, Ohio State, TCU.

March Madness first four out

New Mexico, California, Missouri, Santa Clara.

NCAA tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: Big Ten (11), SEC (10), ACC (8) Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (2), Mountain West (2).

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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