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Bracketology: New No. 1 seed for NCAA Tournament emerges after week of losses

by February 20, 2026
by February 20, 2026

Before the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket is carved in stone, attempts to anticipate what the final product will look like more closely resemble molten lava. That was made abundantly clear over the last three days, which featured numerous developments that in turn led to significant changes in our latest projection.

The quartet of No. 1 seeds was shaken up yet again, as Connecticut was a home upset victim against Creighton Wednesday night. Houston replaces the Huskies on the top line, as the Cougars’ most recent result was a less damaging loss at Iowa State. As fate would have it, the Cougars’ next opponent, Arizona, is also on the first line along with Michigan and Duke, who are set to square off themselves in a non-conference clash Saturday. In short, expect the bracket to once again look very different next week.

STARTING FIVE: Top matchups in top five highlight weekend schedule

There is also much to be settled on the bubble, where both of the Big Ten’s Los Angeles members are on the precipice. As things stand heading into the weekend, UCLA is on the outside and Southern California is clinging to a First Four spot. San Diego State has also fallen to the wrong side of the cut-off point, as Santa Clara returns to the field for now.

March Madness bracketology: NCAA Tournament projection

March Madness last four in

Southern California, New Mexico, Santa Clara, TCU.

March Madness first four out

UCLA, San Diego State, California, Virginia Commonwealth.

NCAA tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: Big Ten (10), SEC (10), ACC (8) Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Mountain West (2).

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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