- The College Football Playoff race is taking shape as the season passes its midway point.
- Teams are generally separated into three tiers: those in the driver’s seat, a second tier of contenders, and those needing help.
- The SEC has multiple front-runners, including Texas A&M, Alabama, and Georgia.
The race for the College Football Playoff is rounding into form as the regular season passes the midway point and heads toward the debut rankings in early November.
That’s not to say that things are clear. Actually, the situation in the Power Four has only started to coalesce around teams separated into three categories:
One, teams that are currently in the driver’s seat. That includes most Power Four teams with one loss.
Two, the second tier of teams just behind the front-runners. These teams are either tied for first or within one game of first place in the conference standings.
And three, teams still in the mix but in need of some help across the board in the Power Four.
Based on these tiers, USA TODAY Sports breaks down the playoff picture in each of the major conferences:
Big Ten
In the driver’s seat: No. 1 Ohio State (7-0), No. 2 Indiana (7-0), No. 6 Oregon (6-1).
All three teams are among the most likely to make the playoff based on what they’ve achieved to date, each team’s remaining schedule and the fact that OSU and the Hoosiers could both be unbeaten when they face off in the Big Ten championship game. Oregon could lose another game and still be a lock.
The second tier: No. 24 Michigan (5-2), Southern California (5-2).
USC handed the Wolverines their one Big Ten loss, while the Trojans’ conference loss came on a last-second field goal to Illinois. USC could’ve secured firmer playoff positioning with a win against No. 12 Notre Dame. It seems more likely than not that Michigan plays Ohio State in the finale with an at-large bid on the line.
Needing help: Iowa (5-2), Illinois (5-2).
Iowa is one game out of first in the standings and have dropped competitive games to ranked teams in Indiana and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes’ most realistic path is via a conference championship. Illinois owns the tiebreaker against USC, but losses to the Hoosiers and Buckeyes will require a perfect close to the regular season and maybe even some help in the Big Ten and elsewhere.
SEC
In the driver’s seat: No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0), No. 4 Alabama (6-1), No. 5 Georgia (6-1).
Texas A&M might be the least respected of these three SEC front-runners, but you can’t argue against an unbeaten record that includes a huge road win against the Fighting Irish. At this point, it’s hard to see how the Tide and Bulldogs finish out of the field.
The second tier: No. 8 Mississippi (6-1), No. 11 Oklahoma (6-1), No. 12 Vanderbilt (6-1), No. 14 Missouri (6-1).
Even if none of these teams play for the SEC crown, each has a clear path toward an at-large bid by ending the regular season with fewer than three losses. While we only have one year of evidence at our disposal, the cutoff point for the at-large window seems like two defeats, though exceptions could easily be made to slide in a qualified three-loss contender.
Maybe the most intriguing team in this group are the Rebels, who have often looked the part of a playoff team but could be in danger of sliding into the needing-help category with a loss this weekend at Oklahoma.
Needing help: No. 17 Tennessee (5-2), No. 18 Texas (5-2), No. 19 LSU (5-2).
The Volunteers haven’t beaten anyone, though they should get credit for playing Georgia tight in an overtime loss. Texas has a strong neutral-site win against the Sooners but have looked very average otherwise. The Tigers are still alive, technically, and can climb into a better position by beating the Aggies and Crimson Tide in their next two games.
ACC
In the driver’s seat: No. 7 Georgia Tech (7-0), No. 9 Miami (6-1).
Off to the program’s best start in over 50 years, the Yellow Jackets could be knocked out of the playoff by dropping just one of four remaining ACC games, losing to Georgia in the season finale and then losing in the conference championship game. On the flip side, the Jackets could be close to a playoff lock if 11-0 when meeting the Bulldogs. Miami is good shape thanks to non-conference wins against Notre Dame and No. 20 South Florida.
The second tier: No. 16 Virginia (6-1), No. 22 Louisville (5-1), SMU (5-2).
Louisville’s back in the conversation after knocking off the Hurricanes. Virginia has a bad loss to North Carolina State and barely sneaked past Florida State, the Cardinals and Washington State. SMU is still perfect in the ACC but has to win the league to reach the playoff after non-conference losses to Baylor and TCU.
Needing help: Pittsburgh (5-2), Duke (4-3), California (5-2).
Given how much uncertainty there is in the ACC, this threesome can’t be eliminated as playoff contenders despite each having one ACC loss and at least two losses overall. Duke is the biggest wild card after losing to three very good teams in Illinois, Tulane and Georgia Tech but destroying Syracuse and California on the road.
Big 12
In the driver’s seat: No. 10 Brigham Young (7-0), No. 21 Cincinnati (6-1), No. 25 Arizona State (5-2), No. 15 Texas Tech (6-1).
BYU has been one of the biggest surprises in the Power Four after losing quarterback Jake Retzlaff to the transfer portal. But road trips to Ames, Lubbock and Cincinnati could knock the Cougars out of contention. Cincinnati is the only other team still unbeaten in conference play and Arizona State is one game behind with a huge tiebreaker over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders still look like the most talented team in the conference and could definitely win out from here.
The second tier: Houston (6-1).
Houston’s one league loss came to the Red Raiders, but the Cougars can partially offset that tiebreaker with a win this weekend at ASU.
Needing help: Iowa State (5-2), TCU (5-2).
Iowa State has dropped two in a row to fall behind the pack. The Horned Frogs can play their way in with November wins against the Cyclones, Cougars and Bearcats.
