We’re a week from the first College Football Playoff poll, and the unmasking of the absurdity of preseason polls.
And more important, their potential affect on the CFP.
It is here where the CFP selection committee, charged this offseason with putting more emphasis on good wins and good losses — not just wins — will get its first test.
Ohio State is on top of the US LBM Coaches Poll and the Associated Press poll, the two polls used for ranking teams until the first CFP poll. And it has nothing to do with good wins.
The three teams with legitimate arguments for the No. 1 ranking — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M — all have one win against a currently ranked team, and have handled the remainder of their schedules with relative east.
But all three wins against ranked teams are not equal.
Indiana went on the road and physically dominated Oregon, and Texas A&M went to South Bend and won in the closing seconds. Ohio State, meanwhile, won a yawner of a home game against a Texas team that struggles to move the ball offensively against any Power conference school not named Mississippi State.
Ohio State and Indiana have one common opponent: Illinois. The Hoosiers won by 53 in Bloomington, Ind., and the Buckeyes won by 18 on the road.
Then there’s Texas A&M, a hot team with the big win of the moment (at LSU). But a bye week before the first CFP poll allows Ohio State (vs. Penn State) and Indiana (at Maryland) to make statements, and influence the selection committee.
Or the committee will punt and select the No. 1 team in the coaches and media polls — which they’ve done a majority of the time with their initial poll since the first CFP in 2014.
A look at this week’s CFP projections.
1. Indiana: Three of the final four games are away from Bloomington, so if someone is going to upset the Hoosiers, this is the month. Next: at Maryland.
2. Ohio State: This team hasn’t been threatened all season by any semblance of an offense. And won’t until the Big Ten championship game. Next: Penn State.
3. Texas A&M: If we’re being intellectually honest, the schedule isn’t what it first appeared to be (avoiding Georgia and Alabama). Aggies will cruise to 12-0. Next: Bye week.
4. Alabama: A year after a whole lot of ugly on the road in the SEC, the ugly is still there. But now it comes with wins. Next: Bye week.
5. Georgia: Dawgs are measured against championship Georgia teams of recent past. That’s a losing proposition in every way imaginable. Next: Florida (Jacksonville, Fla.)
7. Oregon: Considered a lock for the CFP, Ducks still have plenty of heavy lifting remaining. Next: Bye week.
8. Miami: The biggest question in Coral Gables: Can the Canes stay motivated over the final month of the season against overmatched ACC? Next: at SMU.
9. Vanderbilt: It’s all new territory for this program. Every week is the next step into the unknown, yet the Commodores keep stacking wins. Next: at Texas.
10. Georgia Tech: QB Haynes King is getting stronger as November arrives, and there’s a dangerous trap game against a team (and coach) desperate for a win staring back. Next: at NC State.
11. Texas Tech: Biggest two-game stretch of the season for Red Raiders. Will stout defense have an answer for surging K-State QB Avery Johnson (12 TDs in past four games)? Next: at Kansas State.
12. South Florida: Blew a two-touchdown lead at Memphis. Will get one more shot to win there (and likely earn a CFP spot) in the AAC championship game. Next: Bye week.
The projected bracket
First round byes
Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama.
First round games
(12) South Florida at (5) Georgia
(11) Texas Tech at Ole Miss (6)
(10) Georgia Tech at Oregon (7)
(9) Vanderbilt at Miami (8)
When do first CFP rankings projections come out?
Tuesday, Nov. 4, between 8:00 and 8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
