- Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin is a top target for both LSU and Florida, creating a major off-field storyline.
- Several teams, including Ohio State and Indiana, are in a strong position to make the College Football Playoff.
- The Heisman Trophy race remains wide open, with several quarterbacks emerging as leading candidates.
Drama, debate, controversy, madness, chaos: November will have it all.
College football’s regular season rounds the corner and heads toward the finish line with heavy focus on the College Football Playoff. While two teams have separated themselves from the pack in the Big Ten, races in the ACC, Big 12 and SEC could come down to the final weekend of the month and rivalry games that may decide who gets seated and where in the 12-team bracket.
Another major theme in November will be the direction of high-profile coaching searches at LSU, Florida and Penn State. While the Nittany Lions’ search has cast a wider net, the Tigers and Gators have zeroed in on Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin.
The playoff, a potentially wild coaching cycle and a very open-ended Heisman Trophy race are among the storylines to watch across the final month of the regular season:
Where will Lane Kiffin land?
There’s always a chance Kiffin opts to stay at No. 8 Mississippi and retains ownership of a program he’s built into one of the best in the SEC. While NIL and the transfer portal have trimmed the resource gap separating traditional SEC powers from the rest of the pack, there are still better odds he lands at one of LSU or Florida, rivals set to duel for Kiffin’s signature in November’s defining off-field storyline.
Meanwhile, Kiffin will look to land the Rebels’ plane in the playoff — or maybe the conference championship game, though that’s less likely — against a four-game stretch of South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida and Mississippi State. While this is a smooth run by SEC standards, the Rebels haven’t made things easy all season: Six of their past seven games have been decided by a single possession, including a puzzling nail-biter against Washington State.
Not even a bellyflop in November could derail Kiffin’s candidacy for these two positions, though. Should the Rebels take care of business, in fact, Kiffin could become a case study for coaches who have teams in the playoff mix while negotiating for another opening.
Would he leave for another SEC program before the postseason? Could he simultaneously balance coaching one team while recruiting for another? Would Florida and LSU be willing to wait until January to make the hire official, potentially losing a chunk of their rosters while missing out on the transfer-portal window? What Kiffin decides could set a precedent.
Will the Big Ten get a fourth playoff team?
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are currently the safest bets in the Power Four to make the playoff. No. 6 Oregon is in good shape with only a loss to the Hoosiers in hand, though the Ducks have to get back in gear before taking on Iowa, Southern California and Washington.
After sending four teams into last year’s bracket, the Big Ten may be capped at three playoff teams given the ridiculous depth in the SEC — the league has nine teams in the US LBM Coaches Poll — and the number of potential one- and two-loss teams in the Big 12 and ACC. Given the wealth of contenders, it’s reasonable to expect that a three-loss Big Ten team would be squeezed out of the field.
Based on that condition, there are five Big Ten teams in the mix for this fourth spot: No. 21 Michigan, Iowa, Southern California, Washington and Nebraska. One of the Trojans and Cornhuskers will be eliminated after Saturday night’s matchup in Lincoln. USC then hosts Iowa on Nov. 15 and heads to Autzen Stadium a week later.
The race could come down to the final weekend of November, when the Hawkeyes travel to Lincoln and Michigan hosts the Buckeyes. The Wolverines could shake up the entire playoff picture by beating OSU to reach the Big Ten championship game.
Can Vanderbilt lock down an at-large berth?
The No. 11 Commodores will be impossible to keep out of the field with road wins this month against No. 19 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee.
But there will be almost no room for error in November. A loss in Austin this weekend would hand the Longhorns a potentially huge head-to-head tiebreaker. Dropping one of Auburn and Kentucky at home would be devastating. And with the Volunteers favored to beat No. 18 Oklahoma, New Mexico State and Florida, the season finale in Knoxville could be a win-or-go-home eliminator for the final at-large SEC berth.
Beating elite opponents on the road is the last hurdle for Clark Lea’s program, which is just 4-13 away from home since he took over in 2021. While Vanderbilt topped then-No. 10 South Carolina in Columbia back in September, the Commodores haven’t earned a road win against an SEC opponent that finished the season ranked since Alabama in 1950.
What teams are in the best shape?
Five teams hold the pole position for the playoff heading into November:
- Ohio State could lose twice and still earn an at-large berth, though even one loss — to Michigan or to a shared opponent with Oregon — could once again hold the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten championship game.
- Indiana will be expected to steamroll Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue; even a loss wouldn’t prevent the Hoosiers from reaching Indianapolis thanks to the tiebreaker against the Ducks.
- No. 3 Texas A&M has an excellent road win against No. 12 Notre Dame and will be a playoff lock with a win against Missouri on Nov. 8 or the Longhorns on Black Friday.
- As noted, Mississippi’s remaining schedule should grease the Rebels’ path to the playoff amid the high likelihood of off-field drama.
- And after dropping games to No. 9 Miami and A&M by a combined four points, Notre Dame will not be held out of the field by closing with wins against Boston College, No. 23 Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Stanford.
Oregon doesn’t make the list because of those three difficult Big Ten games, two coming on the road. While there’s a case for No. 7 Georgia Tech, the unbeaten Yellow Jackets could get squeezed out of an at-large bid by losing once in ACC play, dropping the rivalry against No. 5 Georgia and then losing in the ACC championship game.
Who wins the Heisman Trophy?
Few Heisman races in recent history have been this uncertain and unsettled heading into November. That raises the possibility of a contender coming out of relative anonymity this month, such as Georgia Tech’s Haynes King or Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby.
But the conversation has coalesced around four quarterbacks. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the current favorite thanks to his 1,932 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. He’s followed by Alabama’s Ty Simpson, who has been spectacular during the Crimson Tide’s seven-game winning streak and has just one interception in 261 attempts.
Just behind this pair is Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, who has hit on 80.6% of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and no turnovers in Big Ten play. Then comes Texas A&M sophomore Marcel Reed, last seen putting on a clinic in the second half against LSU, and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia.
