The debate over the No. 1 spot in the debut College Football Playoff rankings will center on Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M.
Each has an argument for leading the pack. Ohio State has the nation’s best defense, one of the Bowl Subdivision’s most productive offenses and wins against Texas, Washington and Illinois. The Buckeyes have won seven in a row by 18 or more points.
Indiana has built upon last year’s breakthrough by bulldozing through Big Ten play. While the Hoosiers have often looked indestructible, they’ll be docked in this initial comparison with the Buckeyes and Aggies because of a weak non-conference slate of Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State.
A&M is only unbeaten team in the SEC. But the Aggies didn’t draw Alabama, Georgia or Mississippi, and they struggled with game control in narrower-than-expected wins against two of the league’s worst teams in Auburn and Arkansas.
Alabama in 2020 and Georgia a year later are the only teams to land at No. 1 in the debut rankings and then go on to win the national championship. But every debut No. 1 from 2015-2018 — Clemson, Alabama, Georgia and then Alabama again — would lose in the championship game.
Here’s how the debut playoff rankings will look on Tuesday night, including where the selection committee should rank the best team in the Group of Five:
1. Ohio State (8-0)
Best win: vs. Texas (14-7), Aug. 30.
Loss: None.
Up next: at Purdue, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: at Michigan, Nov. 29.
Playoff chances: Extremely strong. Ohio State can’t afford to lose out, obviously, but there’s ample wiggle room to land at least an at-large bid with four games left in the regular season.
2. Indiana (9-0)
Best win: at Oregon (30-20), Oct. 11.
Loss: None.
Up next: at Penn State, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: Penn State.
Playoff chances: Extremely strong. Indiana has wins against Illinois, Iowa and Oregon. The Hoosiers have won every game but one (Iowa) by double digits and taken their past two Big Ten games by a combined 95 points. There is zero reason to think this team will lose before the Big Ten championship game.
3. Texas A&M (8-0)
Best win: at Notre Dame (41-40), Sept. 13.
Loss: None.
Up next: at Missouri, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: at Texas, Nov. 28.
Playoff chances: The best in the SEC. Being unbeaten helps, of course. But A&M also has a top-notch road win against the Fighting Irish along with another two victories against SEC opponents with a winning record (Mississippi State and LSU). Barring the unexpected against South Carolina or Samford, the Aggies can grab at least an at-large berth with a road win this weekend against Missouri or against Texas on Black Friday.
4. Alabama (7-1)
Best win: at Georgia (24-21), Sept. 27.
Loss: at Florida State (31-17), Aug. 30.
Up next: vs. LSU, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: vs. Oklahoma, Nov. 15.
Playoff chances: Getting stronger every week. Alabama’s seven-game winning streak includes four ranked wins, starting with a victory in Athens that represents the most impressive result by any team in the FBS. The Tide have a deeper résumé and a better strength of schedule than A&M but will be docked for that loss to the Seminoles.
5. Georgia (7-1)
Best win: vs. Mississippi (43-35), Oct. 18.
Loss: vs. Alabama (24-21), Sept. 27.
Up next: at Mississippi State, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: vs. Texas, Nov. 15.
Playoff chances: Better than ever. Recent wins against the Rebels and Florida have left Georgia needing one win from Texas and Georgia Tech to lock in an at-large spot. While the rivalry with the Jackets will be must-see TV, the Longhorns are the bigger of the two matchups because of the possibility that a win there lands the Bulldogs the SEC championship game — though they’d still need some help to make that happen.
6. Mississippi (8-1)
Best win: at Oklahoma (34-26), Oct. 25.
Loss: at Georgia (43-35), Oct. 18.
Up next: The Citadel, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: at Mississippi State, Nov. 28.
Playoff chances: Holding firm. The Rebels might’ve been in some trouble had they lost in Norman two weeks ago. But a win there and an easy finish to November will land them in the playoff, as long as they don’t slip up in the Egg Bowl.
7. Brigham Young (8-0)
Best win: vs. Utah (24-21), Oct. 18.
Loss: None.
Up next: at Texas Tech, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: Texas Tech.
Playoff chances: Far from certain. But that would change with a win against Texas Tech. The unbeaten Cougars have four wins against opponents with a winning record (East Carolina, Arizona, Utah and Iowa State) but need to beat an elite opponent to strengthen their postseason case and provide more room for error.
8. Oregon (7-1)
Best win: at Northwestern (34-14), Sept. 13.
Loss: vs. Indiana (30-20), Oct. 11.
Up next: at Iowa, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: at Washington, Nov. 28.
Playoff chances: Could be better. The Ducks pass the eyeball test and have the credibility to join Ohio State and Indiana in the playoff even with a second loss. Oregon has no meaningful wins, though, even if that could change with games against Iowa, Southern California and Washington. A loss to the Hawkeyes or Trojans would set up a must-win finale against the Huskies.
9. Texas Tech (8-1)
Best win: at Utah (34-10), Sept. 20.
Loss: at Arizona State (26-22), Oct. 18.
Up next: vs. Brigham Young, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: Brigham Young.
Playoff chances: Check back on Sunday. Beating BYU would basically lock Tech into the Big 12 championship game and the playoff, given games against Central Florida and West Virginia to end November. That setback in Tempe notwithstanding, the Red Raiders have looked the part of the league’s best team by taking each of their five other Big 12 games by at least 23 points.
10. Notre Dame (6-2)
Best win: vs. Southern California (34-24), Oct. 18.
Losses: at Miami (27-24), Aug. 31; vs. Texas A&M (41-40), Sept. 13.
Up next: vs. Navy, Nov. 8.
Biggest game remaining: at Pittsburgh, Nov. 15.
Playoff chances: Start looking up flights. Notre Dame has recovered from those two losses out of the gate by taking six in a row. The next two games against Navy and Pittsburgh will decide whether the Irish return to the playoff. But one more loss would eliminate Notre Dame because of a lack of marquee wins.
11. Texas (7-2)
Best win: vs. Vanderbilt (34-31), Nov. 1.
Losses: at Ohio State (14-7), Aug. 30; at Florida (29-21), Oct. 4.
Up next: at Georgia, Nov. 15.
Biggest game remaining: Georgia.
Playoff chances: Texas has climbed back into at-large position during a four-game winning streak bookended by key wins against Oklahoma and the Commodores. While the rivalry against Texas A&M looms on Black Friday, the Longhorns would be cast in a spoiler role if they can’t upset Georgia in two weeks.
12. Oklahoma (7-2)
Best win: at Tennessee (33-27), Nov. 1.
Losses: vs. Texas (23-6), Oct. 11; vs. Mississippi (34-26), Oct. 25.
Up next: at Alabama, Nov. 15.
Biggest game remaining: Alabama.
Playoff chances: Not great. Things look better after the road win against Tennessee, but losses to Texas and Mississippi could be very hard to overcome when you think of the number of SEC teams the Sooners would have to leapfrog to land an at-large bid. An even more pressing concern is games against Alabama and Missouri. Those provide opportunity, sure, but one more loss would drop Oklahoma out of the picture. The Sooners’ strength of schedule and non-conference win against Michigan will put them ahead of a pair of one-loss ACC teams in Virginia and Louisville.
23. Memphis (8-1)
Best win: vs. South Florida (34-31), Oct. 25.
Loss: at Alabama-Birmingham (31-24), Oct. 18.
Up next: vs. Tulane, Nov. 7.
Biggest game remaining: Tulane.
Playoff chances: Pretty good. Look for the Tigers to be the only Group of Five team in the debut rankings, though contenders such as South Florida and North Texas will also come under consideration. Wins against the Bulls, Troy and Arkansas give Memphis the edge, though the order will change with a loss against Tulane. In the bigger picture, the winner of the American is virtually guaranteed to earn the automatic playoff bid.
