No one is talking about them. Just an overlooked name on a lost line among College Football Playoff Top 25 poll.
But No. 14 Vanderbilt is in prime position to win out and find a way to the CFP.
At this point, it’s a numbers game. A strange and surreal numbers game we’ve never seen in the history of the CFP.
Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt will be vying for what could be two playoff spots. Texas has the most difficult road, but the story is Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.
They have seven common SEC opponents, a rarity in any season, in any conference.
Texas has the head-to-head win over Vanderbilt, and the Commodores likely need the Longhorns to lose two games. But the resume comparison with Oklahoma is where it gets interesting.
- Both lost to Texas, and both beat South Carolina on the road and Auburn at home.
- Oklahoma beat Tennessee on the road, Vandy plays at Tennessee on the final week of the regular season.
- Vanderbilt lost at Alabama, Oklahoma plays at Alabama this weekend.
- Vanderbilt beat Missouri at home, Oklahoma plays host Missouri Nov. 22.
- Vanderbilt beat LSU at home, Oklahoma plays host to LSU on the final week of the regular season.
Never have two teams fighting for one spot been so easy to compare via common opponents.
The question: How many more losses can Texas and Oklahoma sustain before Vanderbilt passes them? This three-team comparison is the only way Vanderbilt reaches the playoff.
While No. 10 Texas plays at No. 5 Georgia and plays host to Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M over the final three weeks of the season, Vanderbilt plays Kentucky and at No. 23 Tennessee.
Do three-loss Oklahoma and Texas remain ahead of Vanderbilt? Can the Commodores use a big win at Tennessee to strengthen its resume enough that one loss by Oklahoma will be enough for the Commodores to jump them?
This, as much as anything, will show the committee’s ability to look past name and television property value, and reward resume.
The Fortunate
No. 15 Miami
The classic makeup call. Canes were ranked No. 18 in the first poll of the season, out of reach from No. 9 Notre Dame — which it beat in the season opener and has an identical record and a comparable schedule.
Apparently, Miami’s 38-10 win over Syracuse — which has lost six straight by an average of 22.5 points — was a game-changer in the committee’s eyes.
“We had some teams lose,” CFP chairman Mack Rhoades said on the ESPN selection show — and then mumbled some word salad about consistency, playing great defense, the offense needs to play better … and then I lost interest.
Because here’s the reality: Even with Miami’s win over the Irish, this choice could come down to how each plays at Pitt. A common opponent, and prisoner of the moment game.
No. 2 Indiana
Penn State is bad. One of the worst teams in the Big Ten bad. And but for some late game heroics from Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza, Penn State would’ve given Indiana its first loss of the season.
The committee could’ve easily moved Texas A&M — which continues to roll through its SEC schedule — to the No. 2 spot, but stuck with the Hoosiers. With games against Wisconsin and Purdue, Indiana may not have enough to hold off the Aggies who still play SEC games against South Carolina and No. 10 Texas.
No. 13 Utah
What exactly have the Utes done to be ranked in the top 13? Utah beat No. 25 Cincinnati two weeks ago, and that’s about it.
The problem: Who has Cincinnati beaten?
Utah was blown out at home by Texas Tech, and lost by three at BYU. Other than that. A whole lot of nothing. A win over Arizona State without its starting quarterback is Utah’s next best win.
The Frantic
No. 10 Texas
Longhorns likely need two wins over the final three weeks of the season to reach the CFP. That means beating one of two top 5 teams (Georgia or Texas A&M).
A 9-3 record isn’t a lock, but there would have to be some wild upsets over the final three weeks of the season for three-loss Texas to not reach the CFP. A win over either Georgia or Texas A&M would be too difficult to ignore.
The ACC
There are five teams with one conference loss, and only two control their destiny (Georgia Tech, Duke). The best team could be SMU, which struggled early this season and lost to rivals Baylor and TCU.
Then there’s No. 22 Pitt, which finishes the season playing host to No. 9 Notre Dame, at No. 16 Georgia Tech and playing host to No. 15 Miami. Win those three and the Panthers will move into the top 10.
No. 12 BYU
The remaining games: TCU, at No. 25 Cincinnati, UCF. BYU will be favored in all three games, and control their destiny in the race for the Big 12 championship game.
Cincinnati, too, controls its destiny — and is unbeaten at home this season.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
