The race is on for a top-four finish and a bye through the opening round of this year’s College Football Playoff.
Based on the third playoff rankings of the year, at least half of the top four will be come from the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten has the top two in No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana, followed by the SEC with No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 4 Georgia.
One team that’s ready to pounce is No. 5 Texas Tech, which will have the chance to add a second win against No. 11 Brigham Young in the conference championship game if the Cougars can beat Cincinnati and Central Florida to end the regular season with just one loss.
But with the Hoosiers and Buckeyes poised to face off in the Big Ten championship and the Aggies and Bulldogs on track to meet in the SEC, the latest rankings suggest the runner-up in one of these two powerhouse leagues may still manage a soft landing in the top four.
Oklahoma, Tulane and Alabama lead the winners and losers from the third playoff rankings of the season:
Winners
Oklahoma
As expected, Oklahoma climbed three spots from last week and landed at No. 8 after a huge win against now-No. 10 Alabama. The Sooners also own wins against No. 18 Michigan and No. 20 Tennessee, giving them the deepest résumé of any current two-loss contender. To be this high in the rankings at this point of the season essentially guarantees that OU earns an at-large berth with wins at home against Missouri and LSU. In this case, having no path to the SEC championship game is a very good thing for the Sooners, who are better off closing the door on the regular season with just two losses.
Tulane
No. 24 Tulane came in as the only ranked team from the Group of Five, giving the Green Wave a clear edge in the race for an automatic playoff berth with games against Temple and Charlotte to end November. Importantly, James Madison was not ranked out of the Sun Belt. Looking ahead, there’s no realistic way for the Dukes to make up ground with games against Washington State, Coastal Carolina and the winner of the Sun Belt West division. In short, the American has to come out of these rankings feeling very positive about sending its champion to the playoff as the No. 12 seed.
Notre Dame
Oklahoma’s climb didn’t impact Notre Dame, which hung on at No. 9 after Saturday’s impressive win against Pittsburgh. The story has been the same for the Fighting Irish for weeks: Beat everyone left on the schedule, make the playoff. Even after being leapfrogged by the Sooners, that’s very likely still the case ahead of games against Syracuse and Stanford to end the year. Avoiding a drop to No. 10 allows the Irish to breathe a little easier given that two teams lower in the rankings — the ACC champion and the Group of Five representative — will eventually climb into the bracket with the final rankings.
Losers
Alabama
The six-spot drop from last week is more symbolic than anything, given that the Crimson Tide can still book a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn. But the drop also indicates that Alabama is out of the tournament entirely with a loss in the Iron Bowl. Based on this new ranking, what’s more interesting to consider is whether the Tide can lose in the conference championship and still make the playoff. Beating Eastern Illinois and the Tigers won’t do much for Alabama’s résumé. If the Tide are 10-2 and ranked No. 10 but are blown out by No. 3 Texas A&M or No. 4 Georgia, will they remain inside the top 10 in the final rankings?
The ACC
Another week, another dismal showing for the ACC. No. 13 Miami is the league’s highest-ranked team — and one of the winners of the night — despite having a slim path to the conference championship, followed by No. 16 Georgia Tech and No. 19 Virginia. These rankings continue to suggest the ACC will be a one-bid league. But the ACC could thread the needle and add a second team under very specific circumstances, notably a clean finish from the Hurricanes, a Georgia Tech upset of Georgia — this result would do wonders for the league’s national credibility — and a shocking loss by the Irish or Tide down the stretch.
